With Slim Pickings For QB’s In The Early Rounds…
The Dolphins are certain to have Ryan Tannehill as their signal caller for 2016 and for those hoping otherwise, whether right or wrong, early rounds are looking like slim picking for a QB. With too much attached to Ryan’s contract even if a FA QB were available, which they aren’t, Miami could’t afford one. So if T-Hill is to be replaced in 2017, and Logan Thomas isn’t the guy, the middle rounds is the only place were they will find one.
2016’s Top QB prospects are extremely weak compared to past years. At the moment some of the best sportsbooks have Paxton Lynch, the QB from Memphis, as the top rated QB in this upcoming draft. However, if anyone saw the Birmingham Bowl, where Memphis played Auburn, they would have thought they had the wrong team and player. Paxton looked awful completing only 16 of 37 passes for 106 yards, no touchdowns, 1 interception and a pitiful QB rating of 14.9. In addition, the announcers during the game were continually saying how Paxton Lynch does not even throw NFL type passes, meaning most of his passes are dump passes or at the line of scrimmage passes. If Lynch is the supposed best of the bunch in terms of QB’s, then Miami “might” not be even consider drafting a QB in the early rounds of the upcoming draft. At least if he is actually the best…in retrospect, who wouldn’t draft Brady #1 overall.
Since this does “appear” to be a very weak QB class, there may actually be much better value in drafting a QB in the middle rounds, if Miami is seriously looking to add some youthful competition for Tannehill. One of the more intriguing QBs in my opinion is Cardale Jones, the QB from Ohio State. Jones was not even Ohio State’s starter at the end of the year this season, however, in his first three starts 2 seasons ago, he won the Big 10 championship, had an upset victory against heavily favored Alabama in the Playoff game, and then finished the trifecta with a National Championship. In his 8 starts this past season, all he did was win every game. He definitely still is a raw QB, however, he is a monster of a young man at 6’5”, 250 pounds and has a cannon for an arm, and he is difficult to sack. Maybe Cardale or another late round QB could be drafted and developed. You can, after all, never have too many good QB’s
Since I am not an expert, or even mildly versed in the college game, this is all theoretical and more of an opportunity to learn from the readers about what would be good players to watch. Bottom line is we are supposed to have a “QB Guru Type OF Coach”, why not find something that can be developed and if T-Hill pans out then you have trade-able goods. This could be area where we are creating value for Miami through development. Anyway, all wisdom would be great. Go Fins!!
I hear what you are saying Lemmus. However; I must disagree; I know that we can not field the same 2 starting guards that we finished or experimented w in ’15. One could be had via free agency and another in the second round (guards usually start coming off the board in the second on down, where Miami should be able to get a starter followed by depth.
Look at the 2 Super Bowl teams for ’15;
Offensive Ranks:
Yards/Game – Denver 16, Carolina 11, Miami 26
Passing YPG – Denver 14, Carolina 24, Miami 19
Rushing YPG – Denver 17, Carolina 2, Miami 23
Defensive Rankings;
Yards/Game – Denver 1, Carolina 6, Miami 24
Pass YPG – Denver 1, Carolina 11, Miami 21
Rush YPG – Denver 3, Carolina 4, Miami 28
Sacks/Game – Denver 1, Carolina 6, Miami 25
Do you see a pattern here, DEFENSE WINS!!! Just look at Miamis defensive rankings compared to that of Denver and Carolina (and the rest of the playoff teams). Not even comparable defensively, however; offensively they are comparable even w horrible guard play. As a matter of fact if you were to look at all of this years playoff teams you would see that EACH team is in the top 10 in every important defensive category, not so w the offensive categories.
I too want a few new guards along with some depth on the O-Line. But, good staffs/coaches/game plans can over come decent O-Line play (doesn’t need to be great). Not the case w the defensive play. You can’t continue to ignore the defense side of the ball. Our offense is on the cheap at the skills positions right now for another 3-4 years, now is the time to focus on the defense so that when our Laudrys/Parkers/James/Ajayi’s of the offense are due their second (usually their biggest) contracts, we are on the defensive cheap for 3-4 years during that time.
…year after year after year after year the fins end the season with virtually everyone screaming fix the gd ol for f’s sake! …then, a month or so down the line, the draft gurus start scheming …and the ol becomes a we can fix it later bit ’cause we want flash or dash in the early rounds
…fix the ol …1st, 2nd, 3rd rounds …at least one of them will start, hopefully two, plus a decent backup or even a 2nd year replacement for Albert or Pouncy …we need starters AND depth
…f the QB bs …this team is all in on Tannehill, like it or not, we live or die with him for the next two years
…yes, we need a lb …yes we need a cb …but we have young talent on the team right now that should be ready to step up if the coaches are worth a damn …there is zero young ol talent on this team that can possibly be coached up to starter status this year …not even backup depth which is desperately needed as well
…the ol doesn’t flash and they certainly don’t dash …but they do keep the QB upright with enough time to throw long …and they do make or break the run game
…yes, defense wins games …we all know that, repeat it ad infinitum …so we can sound like we know more about football than the guy on the next barstool
…but THIS team loses on offense …every year, ad infinitum …and it does that on the ol
…fix the damn ol first …this year …now …we can do flash ‘n dash next year
Agree on most Lemmus, except this: let’s say we spend 1-3 picks on OL and even if they all pan out (and that would be awesome), it would be contrary on how the best GMS/ FO’s put a line together. The best FO / Gm’s spend a high pick on LT’s and superior talent elsewhere on the line and find gems mid and beyond. It takes real evaluation/ development skills to do this and maybe a lack in these skills could be masked with high pick expenditures, but ultimately that lack of ability would be exposed and come back to haunt the team in other areas. As I see the O-Line, only James is a keeper, so essential this year, or sooner than later, everyone else needs to be replaced for long term success. Pouncy is injured too much, has had a drop off in skill (even though he might fit Gase’s system better than Campbell’s) and he is the top paid C and plays in the middle of the pack; Dallas has only one hope RG or else he is gone; Turner is a back up unless development can work wonders; and Albert is soo talented, but spends alot of time injured and is the most irreplaceable. We really need five new linemen: center (Jamil MIGHT have an outside shot at becoming the starter) two guards, LT and LT/ RT back- up. The only way to make this happen is full spectrum acquisition of draft, FA, UDFA. I believe in the first 3 rds two linemen and one D talent would be fair. BUT, the difficulty is then you MUST hit all three, which is hard. 1st RD is a certain must hit and would most likely be a LT(as that talent goes fast), then we’d have two LT’s and still holes (although that rook could be the back up need for both T spots). Second would it be a guard? He would have to be stellar to forgo a CB or LB because again that talent goes quick. I believe you are absolutely correct that the O-line is essential…it’s THE most important unit if the game, but I just disagree with throwing that many early picks into it’s build. Unless as has been said you fall back, gets some picks, use the later pick to get the LT. Then somewhere in the second you could get that D talent and still funnel high values picks into the line. I see it as we MUST have a good or better line this season to move forward and to evaluate T-Hill, but a real CB and LB must be acquired. CB, SLB, MLB is essential even to the O – track meets of Td’s where the O is chasing hinders the run game and could screw up T-Hills eval., increase chances of injuries and jeopardize this regime. So, if the regimes see we do have talent on the D, and if they are evaled. as starters, then I would be inclined to agree with you more , but you can never have too many QB’s or CB’s and never a good enough O line! If we can find a starter or two after the third on the O-line that ripple effect of high value need/ talent with low value picks will go a long way to helping this team recover…least that’s my two cents stretched out into a quarter. Good stuff as always sir, thanks!
Jones:
Fails to read defenses and locks onto targets, issues that were obvious on his 2014 tape as well. Where he has really struggled is a lack of anticipation and timing. Jones waits for targets to get open before throwing the ball as hard as he can so it arrives before the defender.
Is this the kind of QB we would want if Tanny doesn’t work out? After all, kinda sounds like Tanyys weaknesses.
Hogan:
Elongated delivery. Struggles with accuracy on deep passes. Good instincts and good short to mid range accuracy.
Again, would hogan be ready after one year if Tanny is not? Both players could improve with some good coaching, especially working w Gase.
Miami needs to many other positions to draft a QB in the first 2 rounds (unless #8 overall, highly doubtful).
Defense, Defense, Defense needs to be the main concentration. The more I watch the divisional and championship playoff rounds the more I am leaning towards taking a LBer @8, someone like Myles Jack (a true 3 down LBer), and even if a LBer such as Noah Spence (Eastern Kentucky, former Buckeye who was dismissed due to Ecstacy addiction) falls to the second round, I may even double up at that position w the first 2 picks. Or trade back, receive another pick(s) and grab Reggie Ragland and then hope that Spence slips to the second round #8.
The more I look into all, the more I think it is going to a LBer w the first pick, and Jack fits the part at #8. Spence’s stock will be rising, but if his off the field concerns causes him to slip to Miami in the second round, they should take the chance. After all, take a look at the 2 Super Bowl teams, you see productive LBers everywhere on both teams, difference makers. We have the front line, now is the time to put good, young, physical LBers behind them. I was initially wanting a CB @8. The more I watch/read/listen too, more and more a LBer makes the most sense. It would be refreshing to have a couple Zach Thomas’s running around making plays for a change. This team/organization hasn’t had a Pro Bowl Lber in forever, has been too too long for that!!!
Dunner
You are right on with your accessmenet of these two QB’s.
A. Kevin Hogan from Stanford is a 5th year QB.
He has had good coaching etc. But can he carry the Dolphins after a season are two if Tannehill does not work out?
B. Cardale Jones on the other hand won over Iving Myers who had more on the line than most coaches. He has a National Title which including defeating Nick Saban Alabama, Mucus Merriota Oregon etc. as a back up. He’s able to throw 65 to 70 yards on one knee etc. The right coaching I dont see a down side, He is worth the Gamble. (Extra draft picks stragedy in the 2nd or 3rd).
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2015/10/06/stanford-qb-david-hogan-a-study-in-pocket-presence/
Arm Strength by Hogan:
http://thedraftwire.usatoday.com/2016/01/13/2016-nfl-draft-scouting-report-stanford-qb-kevin-hogan/
http://www.si.com/college-football/2015/01/08/cardale-jones-ohio-state-military-school
Arm Strenght
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/114029/cardale-jones-arm-strength-expands-ohio-state-offense
Stating to throw the ball 80 yards and 65 yards on one knee
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr-saturday/ohio-state-qb-cardale-jones-says-he-can-throw-the-ball–80-85-yards-165228105.html
Yeah, I wouldn’t want a QB earlier than the 5th – maybe 4th if he would be a high value pick at that round. We need players and 4th still has a load of talent, and the 5th, well even the 5th has found a player or two 🙂
Admin
Both would be a bargain & possibly the best thing that has happen to the Dolphins in a few decades..
Kevin Hogan # 8 QB Senior
Rating: 171.
2015 Season YDS TD INT
2867 27 8
Career 9385 75 29
ROSE BOWL GAME PRES. BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL
1/1 @Iowa W 45-16
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cardale Jones #12 QB Junior
Ohio State Buckeyes
Hometown Cleveland, OH
Height6-5 Weight 250 lbs.
2015 Season YDS TD INT
1460 8 5
Career 2323 15 7
Rating
141.5
Man I need to step up my game and look over these QB’s….been under and extremely busy stretch. Thanks Steve…I am planning to spend some time on looking over the draft prospects soon! Hogan I’ll do some looking over today.
Smart play is for Fins to trade down even a couple of times and pick up as many picks as possible. A QB in the late 2nd or early 3rd with the extra pics if theres a prospect there. If not, then a they’ll have to select a QB the following years draft at a much earlier round.
I dont think this roster is in good shape at all. Too many holes.
lots of holes a few bright spots though…I think they should focus on sealing up the issues with the O and take all excuses from T-Hill – I want his make or break year to be totally on him. Yr 2 could be another year of fixing the cap and then get D fixed. Only caveat is CB is a near necessity.
Admin
Denver would not be in this Super Bowl without having a serious Back up QB.
Cardal Jones QB Ohio State (Let him ride the Bench for a year then play him if the Dolphins Must)
Ervin Myers believes in him as coach. Throwing the Deep Ball no problem Requardless what anyone says he has won the big games.
Scenario Say Miami missed drafting Cardale Jones then Kevin Hogan QB for Stanford would be there he is compared to Philip Rivers.
I’ll check out Hogan thanks. And yes, Broncos would be home if it weren’t for Brock. Elway did a very good job picking him up. We need a few moves like that…like when we got Grimes on the cheap – that was a very good move.
Admin
QB is an issue the Dolphins have not seriously address since Dan Marino. Not one of the Dolphins QB’s have made a single Pro Ball since Marino etc. Noted but will never happen the Fins have the perfect opportunity to get the best players in this draft by just trading out for more picks.
Yeah, it depends on a series of choices which will determine it. Sign all DE’s and keep Wake trade back. If not grab a top DE if available. Either way, middle round is where teams make or break a regime. Look at Seattle, they killed the middle and late rounds for a couple of years!!! O course they also killed the early rounds as well…lucky bums!!!