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So You’re Saying The Dolphins Have A Chance…

So You’re Saying The Dolphins Have A Chance…

Fan is short for fanatic, so why not enjoy yourself and believe there's a chance

Fan is short for fanatic, so why not enjoy yourself and believe there’s a chance

As a jaded fan, I don’t see it happening, but the chance of it happening isn’t zero

Even after the Miami Dolphins disappointing performance against the Buffalo Bills and everything but the kitchen sink stacked against the Dolphins to make the Post Season, they’re still those who honesty believe the Fins are still ‘alive’ for the playoffs. 

God bless your soul.. really! I admire your hope.

Yeah, I guess from a purely mathematical view, even though the chances are slimmer than Boss Hog missing his breakfast (about a 4%), there is a possibility. In this I’m reminded of the great American philosopher Lloyd Christmas:

 

Okay, let’s look at the Dolphins ‘path’ to the Post Season.

Miami MUST win their last 2 games… but that’s just a drop in the bucket for a Playoff miracle to happen.

The first game against the Chiefs has the best pay per head sites putting the Dolphins at a double digit underdog at +10.5. 

Not an easy first step.

Yes, the line did open at +12 and has come down since.

Even with the slight drop in the line, Miami must play like they did against the New England Patriots two weeks ago to get the win. 

But the Chiefs won’t be like the Gronkless Pats were as Pro Bowl Tight End Travis Kelce will be playing.You can bet Coach Andy Reid is going to make sure he gets his star TE heavily involved in the offensive game plan.

 Hey, there’s a chance, so I can’t say it’s impossible… but sure won’t put money on it

If Miami can somehow find a way to win against Kansas City and then get a win against Buffalo, then they’re still going to need a mountain of help. 

Here you go:

The Patriots must win this weekend against Buffalo; Tennessee Titans must lose their two remaining games; Baltimore Ravens must lose both of their 2 remaining games; and the LA Chargers and the Oakland Raiders must each lose one of their last two remaining games.

Say that in one breathe.

The Ravens are the biggest sticking point as they have a pretty easy last two games against the Colts, where they are a -13.5 favorite at home this Saturday, and then on the road against the 5-9 Bengals.

So as you can see that even though Miami is still mathematically alive, they may have a better chance of winning the lottery then having ALL these scenarios happen. But hey, as long as you’re not betting the house, why not! Enjoy and I hope you are right… because there is still a chance. GO FINS!!!

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36 comments

  • Lemmus

    …interesting theory …would make sense if it turns out that Belicheat does retire sooner than expected …the hole in it would be, if he retires, Brady keeps on winning with his replacement …poof goes Belicheat’s elevated place in NFL history …but the guy is right, Belicheat’s legacy right now is tied to Brady …there will always be an asterisk next to his name in the record books if he never wins an AFC championship without him …and rightfully so

    • Lemmus

      …its all but over for the 2017 season and the draft is on every tongue

      …but first will come the early cuts/releases, probably early in January …some could be surprises and some will not be …J.Thomas and Cutler would surprise no one, actually do the opposite …but there will be surprises because Gase will be under pressure to cull the roster of players he doesn’t see fitting into its future …or whose cap cost exceed their value …Pouncey immediately comes to mind in that category

      …and then Free Agency in early March, well before draft, both our own and all the rest …which of our own do we need to keep and at what cost in this severely cap restricted year?

      …thus its time to look at our own Unrestricted Free Agents …note that we also have several Restricted Free Agents that must be considered as well, some of whom are key players, Parkey among them

      …Cutler(10), Hayes(5), Misi(4), Allen(3), Bushrod(3), Fasano(3), M.Thomas(2), Williams(2), Moore(2), Denny(1), Verner(1), Young(1), Landry(1), Fales(.6), Aikens(.6), and Fede(.6) are all UFAs in 2018

      …we certainly don’t have the cap to keep them all …and don’t want to keep many of them …but several do have value and should be kept if their value can be fit into our cap …keep in mind that for every one we cut, we have to find a replacement and they will cost as well

      …Cutler, Misi, Allen, Bushrod, Moore, Verner, Aikens are automatic cuts imnsho …they have all had their shot and fell short for one reason or another

      …Hayes is 32 but was our best run defender next to Suh …he wants more money …does he have another year in him …and how much more?

      …Fasano is 33 but was our best run blocking TE …J. Thomas will certainly be cut and MG is not a great blocker on a team that needs its TEs to block well

      …M Thomas has never excelled at S but shines on ST?

      …Williams is a pretty good RB, especially in the pass game, but wants more money?

      …Denny is 39 but ultra reliable as our long snap specialist …did I mention cheap?

      …Young is at least a backup at OT but will want more money? …how much?

      …Landry is a team leader and NFL 5th ranked WR but will cost ~14M a year to resign …15M to tag? …and how will his recent public flareups with Gase affect his retention?

      …Fales looked good in camp/preseason but not good enough to keep …we should draft his replacement

      …Fede is a decent DE backup and ST stalwart but will want more money? …how much?

      …I think that’s the UFA list as it currently stands …Parkey, Hull, Hewitt, and Steen are all low tender RFAs and Brendel is an ERFA …none should be a problem to retain if Gase wants them

      …Landry and Hayes are, imnsho, key to ’18 and it will be both interesting and instructive to watch the dance around them in the coming months …I don’t expect an impact FA from another team to be signed due to both our cap issues and the shaky status of Gase …not to mention the Timmons lesson from ’17

      …and then its on to the draft 🙂

      • admin

        Timmons need to be GOODBYE; Thomas GOODBYE, James GOODBYE… unless he plays for 4-5 mill.; Pouncey GOODBYE or serious restructure;
        Cutler(10) GOODBYE, Hayes(5) GOODBYE, Misi(4) GOODBYE, Allen(3) GOODBYE, Bushrod(3) GOODBYE, Fasano(3) GOODBYE, M.Thomas(2)reasonible price, Williams(2)YES, Moore(2)Gase doesn’t trust him… GOODBYE, Denny(1)YES, Verner(1) GOODBYE, Young(1)YES, Landry(1)Not Sure (see below), Fales(.6)only if real chaep, Aikens(.6) GOODBYE, and Fede(.6) GOODBYE are all UFAs in 2018

        “Landry and Hayes are, imnsho, key to ’18”
        I really like Malveaux and I think because of Hayes age they shouldn’t peruse him. Malveaux is big and strong and if he pans out he will be around for 19, which has always been the target. Landry and his mood swings sorta’ pisses me off. He has had three bouts of the pouts this season and it’s not going to help with what Gase needs to do. Not saying don’t resign him, but can you imagine him pulling his shouting feast with Belichick? Part of it is Gase must have play call duties… but Landy is supposed to be a leader. Should everyone scream when they don’t like something? Or is Landry a special case. If I were coaching, I’d figure it will get worse when he gets paid.

        “Williams is a pretty good RB, especially in the pass game, but wants more money?”
        He was ready to sign for what the Bills back got with the Pats… make him the same offer and smile.

        “Parkey YES, YES, YES, Hull Maybe, Hewitt YES–cheap, and Steen YES–Cheap are all low tender RFAs and Brendel YES is an ERFA “

    • admin

      Yeah, only a theory, but interesting.

  • phinfreak

    All,

    Merry Christmas….and Gase is the primary problem. 3rd and 24 in the redzone and he calls a friggin bubble screen to a midget you can tackle w one hand? AYFKM!!!?? Sorry guys and gals but sooner or later you too will come to realize this team is a ship without a rudder.

    Chronic turnovers and penalties is not an indicator of lack of talent, it is an indicator of poor coaching. Every week, every game, its the same breakdowns occurring over and over never getting fixed. And in case you were thinking, that is not fixed in the off season either. Its fixed by competent leadership and coaching.

    None of which exist in Davie. But hey! Happy New Year!

    • admin

      Merry Christmas as well.

      “Chronic turnovers and penalties is not an indicator of lack of talent, it is an indicator of poor coaching.”

      Carroll has bottom 5 in penalties–crap coach?

      Cutler / Moore are responsible for 19 TO’s and 5 fumbles, Landry and Stills are responsible for 5 Fumbles with all lost. This isn’t Gases fault these are pro’s who are screwing up.

      Gase is responsible for creating an environment where screw ups are tolerated. He should have benched Cutler. He should bench Landry for screaming at him. He wants to be a player friendly coach… this always happens in player friendly programs. Gase needs to stop seeing them as peers game time and see them as soldiers who better do their job or else.

      Gase is responsible for making bad evaluations, bad calls and slow to adjust to the teams talents and strengths. They were mitigating factors… none of which will be an issue with 18– even Tannehill needs to have a chosen replacement in case.

      Happy New Year as well. It will be interesting next year. Time will tell if Gase craps out or not. If he does he’s an idiot as what he needs to implement is the easiest part…even Philbin was able to implement it. Top 5 in least penalties first 3 seasons.

      • phinfreak

        So youre saying the Seahawks have bad talent? What do you mean by “mitigating factors” ? You mean excuses. When everyone on the team is under achieving, thats coaching. If it were a player here, a position there, then yes, that would be a talent issue.

        But there is no way this talent should be playing this poorly. Thats coaching across the board, position, coordinators, and HC.

        Happy Hanukkah!

        • admin

          No, I’m saying they are a sloppy team with a lot of talent and that mitigates the sloppy play. Also, having good QB play further mitigates sloppy team play because it’s a piece that is giving o much prominence by the rules. I like Shula / Belichick style of coaching, there is more consistency. Rex Ryan / Carroll / Gase style of player friendly vein fails more often we thing run afoul. But Philbin esc coach have a bar of height when they are disciplinarians with no people skills–unlike Shula and Belichick. Tom C. is a prime example of the limit of disciplinarians, and then when he made the change the success that followed. Harbaugh in Baltimore is a nice middle ground, although he has ebb and flows.

          “Cutler / Moore are responsible for 19 TO’s and 5 fumbles, Landry and Stills are responsible for 5 Fumbles with all lost. This isn’t Gases fault these are pro’s who are screwing up.”

          This was the mitigating factor… wasn’t explicit enough. Cutler will be gone, and Landry might as well, but this was his worst season as far as sloppy play. So if he is back this likely won’t reoccur.

          “You mean excuses.”

          A team based on a running back has the runner break his leg before half time. The second half they don’t have a good offensive output and lose. Mitigating factor or excuse? Crappy coaching right?

          There were a load of extenuating circumstances that added to the difficulty level of the season. A better more seasoned coach likely would have fared better. But minus those laundry list of events this season would have fared better as well. Shula found out this when Marino blew out his Achilles and then lost Mitchell and then lost 5 in row and failed to make the Playoffs. Mitigating factors or excuse?

  • Lemmus

    …watched the 49ers whip the Jags last night

    …what a difference

    …0-8 and they send a second round pick to NE for their then backup QB, Garoppolo …and the rest is history

    …and will be history, because he looks like the real thing …with Shanahan at HC and JG at QB, SF has to be an early contender for a SB spot next year

    …I wasn’t high on the trade when it was made, didn’t think Belicheat would have traded him if he was franchise material …but last night was an eye opener

    …if only our FO had the same foresight …it would have cost us more than a 2nd because Belicheat isn’t going to do anything to help Miami unless the price was a lot higher …but a good FO could have made it work even if they had to use a 3rd party trade to do so …try and imagine the last 7 games with JG at QB instead of Cutler

    …alas, tis not ours to wonder why, tis but ours to watch and die …inside, a bit, every time they quit

    …Brady will eventually go, this we surely know …but Bellicheat will still be here …and its him I truly fear

    …I watched the phins play yesterday, and then the niners make hay in the bay …and here’s the short of it; freak is right, Gase is sh*t …zero discipline even from our stars, the whole damn team belongs behind bars

    …with that cheery thought, Merry Christmas and a Happier New Year to all …and may the phins be much, much better this coming fall 🐬

    • admin

      “Brady will eventually go, this we surely know …but Bellicheat will still be here …and its him I truly fear”
      YUP!

      Didn’t watch the game, so ll I have is a stat line and that’s less than half the picture, so I hold comment on JG.

      Gase being garbage… I won’t go there, but I have some thoughts on it and am working on an article about it now. I think though that theory and practicality are rarely one. I think Gase did an install in a certain area with OC exp and theory as his guiding principle… I think he’s getting a wake up call that this wasn’t a winner. Green is his greatest sin ATM… if it is backed by pride, then Freak will be correct. 2018 will determine this. Gase needs to learn the lesson on most first time Dads: you aren’t their friend, you are their parent. Being friendly is being there friend and being friend first makes a poor Dad. Landry outburst, and Gase’s response to it, demonstrates Gase has an OC mentality… time for him to grow into a HC or he’ll be out of a job.

    • admin

      And very Merry Christmas and thanks for all your contributions to the community!!!!! Let’s hope 2018 offers far more happy times!!!

    • Lemmus

      …dear God it hurts to say “freak is right” …but if you watched the phins and the miners play yesterday, it was clear as a bell …only one of them looked well coached

      …despite the manifest problems Gase has faced this year, he bears the burden for what he put on the field …injuries and misfortune are part of the game …but the penalties, turnovers, missed tackles, dropped balls, poor protection, and inconsistent play are team wide …and that …that lies at Case’s door 😠

      …he will get another year, but he will …and should be …on a very short leash to get the discipline problems solved …or else

      • admin

        I think the framework Gase set up only works with a team that’s winning. Now if Gase sucked and had no hope they wouldn’t have clean games… they out cleaned a few good teams, so it can happen, but the consistency isn’t there. Reid is a better coach and will have his teams out clean Gase most of the time at this juncture… but that wasn’t always the case. With the Eagles he had sloppy teams half of the seasons–aside from that really good 3-4 year run. Shannahan has his Dad and lived most of his life with an HC. Gase is a young guy who showed talent as an OC. He has implemented a portion of framework of the team with a OC and green/ young guy mindset. I think 2018 could very easily be starkly different IF he adjusts… if not nothing will change. But the changes that need to be made are among the easier to install and Gase has shown he has the determination and strength to do what it takes. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been consistent in them and has vacillated between wise and young buck. I do think Year 3 is critical, but I don’t think it’s even a long shot that a discipline fix happens… It will come down to Gase choosing to evaluate himself and making simple, but key, adjustments. As an example: Suh and Landry are high talented vets, but both have made a lionshare of mistakes… you can’t blame Gase on that directly, but rather indirectly you can. Anyway, Year 3 is jump off the ship time… not now. I suspect he sees, but can’t fix mid season… changes during the season in this regards are like stopping locomotives on a dime.

  • Fritz

    Penalties, penalties, penalties…

    Turnovers, turnovers…

    Missed tackles galore, poor play calls/execution…

    Need I say more?

    • admin

      No Fritz… for all the talk about talent, it’s the mental side of the ball that’s the what lags the most. Either Gase hasn’t learned, or can’t, install it, or the talent in mentally weak. This season they MUST fix this. Either train them better or weed out the mentally weak. Pats have the most unsigned FA rookies on their team… they prize smart, disciplined players over raw physical talent… we should do the same… Merry Christmas Fritz and thanks for all your contributions.

  • Steve

    Merry Xmas Dolphin Fans!

    • admin

      Merry Christmas brother…thanks for all the videos over the year… this year, I’m going to really focus on the draft… be well and enjoy.

  • Scott

    Another thought here,how about building this team to succeed off of it’s own talents and merit instead of relying on other team defaults to make it into the post season.
    Draft picks aren’t the only thing holding this franchise back It also depends on a coaching team formula that works and a great head coach.

    • admin

      Agree! Discipline, low turnovers and low penalties are just about totally in a team / players control. A sound team will find luck and wins coming there way a lot. I believe Shula said this… Luck favors the prepared. Consistent play is the product of a disciplined team and consistent winning follows. I fear Gase is falling into the Rex Ryan coaching style more than the Shula style… and that’s not a winner. Thanks for commenting Scott and Merry Christmas!

  • Scott

    Offensive line needs to be built for any chance of success can happen.
    How about picking proven college stars in the first round a lot more often and drop the project selections.

    • admin

      If you look at the Oline minus Bushrod and James and add in Davis, Young and Larsen, the results are quite better. Now, I think Larsen needs to be a back up, and Pouncey needs to go. I like Davis at RG at the very least, if not RT, and I’m hoping Smith gets a shot at RT–even if it’s just depth. If Pouncey wants to restructure for less, them maybe give him one more year and get a stud LG in the draft and / or RT–with either developing Brendel or a late C to see if he can be a diamond in the ruff. Even if this line as it is composed just had a stud RG is would be near middle of the pack. And if Tunsil steps up next year, that will further this line in the right direction. Davis and Tunsil are quality enough starters to build around. Heck you could get a stud T in the draft, and if he is better, move Tunsil RT–becuase of Tunsil’s weakness at RB and that he is more agile than strong, I don’t see him as a G. But for me, LG is near as valuable as a LT as they must block alone mostly in Pass Protect. I think LG is the weakest link on the OL and needs to be solved more than even C–although, I’d love to see both solved for next year.

  • Scott

    This team will always be subpar as long as the draft picks remain the same blueprint.

    • admin

      They have been better though Scott… I would have disagree, but a few have made strides.

      Round 1, Pick No. 13: Laremy Tunsil not terrible and not a stud. Next year will be a better indicator as he was in essence a rookie for two seasons.

      Round 2, Pick No. 38: Xavien Howard Is he first half or second half Howard? Not close to a bust and might turn into an excellent 2 CB.

      Round 3, Pick No. 73: Kenyan Drake If healthy, this guy will be a Star… big surprise, BIG.

      Round 3, Pick No. 86: Leonte Carroo So far a bust…not so much as a 3rd round pick… but with all the other picks involved, if he doesn’t pan out next year its a big black.

      Round 6, Pick No. 186: Jakeem Grant Flashing and could be a bust or steal. For a late pick good value.

      6-7 th picks most never make it on any roster. Doughty is still here and that’s a decent sign.

      Round 1, No. 22 overall: Charles Harris, I would have said leaning towards alet down, but the guy has gotten a lot better. Next season will be a far better indicator.

      Round 2, No. 54: Raekwon McMillan inconclusive

      Round 3, No. 97: Cordrea Tankersley started and did better than Maxwell. Good sign but inconclusive

      Round 5, No. 164: Isaac Asiata a RG who struggles with PB red shirted. OL take time to develop 2 more years for a fair eval, but next year he must make strides to stick

      Round 5, No. 178: Davon Godchaux Great value at the least 2-3 DT…likley will develop into a #2 DT

      Round 6, No. 194: Vincent Taylor, anothe rsolid find and could be a #3-4 DT

      But, if you add in URFA’s Chase,Malvaux, Smith, and some cheap FA’s / trades Anthony, Parkey, Hayes, and Davis I see far more talent coming in then in year’s past… that’s just my take and if several pieces take a step back next year, then the picture will look quite different. Drake, Grant, Davis, and Howard developing offers hope that this next wave of talent will do so as well… but it’s not a guarantee. And Tunsil especially, as well as Parker need to bloom or good chips will have been wasted. So I’m waiting and seeing. Year 3 will be a major tell of what is what.

  • Lemmus

    …well the fat lady has sang her last chorus for the phins 2017 season …Ravens beat the Colts yesterday, although it was close at the end …and that was the final nail in the coffin …no matter what we do in the final two games, there is no longer any path to the playoffs for us this year

    …I’ve mixed feelings about today’s game in KC …a win would feel good …but it would really hurt in the draft positioning …too many variables still left but if we lose the last 2 games, we could possibly draft as high as 6th …otoh, winning out could place us as low as 14th …that’s one check of a difference, especially if we trade down in the 1st

    • Lemmus

      …that sucked …just sucked …hate losing …no way to put a happy face on that 😠

      …otoh, we just moved up in the draft …highlight of the season, we get a top 10 pick to work with

      …damn, we had such high hopes before TH went down again …well founded hopes …and then …then they screwed the draft …and I said we’d go 7-9 …and I may have been optimistic at that …and then we lost the best bye we’d had in years …and then …well, it just sucks

      • admin

        No penalties, sloppy play and turnovers… this must change in 2018!!! We need a LG and someone to cover TE’s…no ifs ands or buts… Merry Christmas !!!

  • dolphinst

    Honestly at this point is just about putting down good tape and checking out younger players and the Dolphins playing discipline. If playoffs happen and hey that’s a miracle but right now it’s about having some positive momentum going into 2018. Also I got to say you guys are firing on all cylinders lately with your articles they’re really spot-on. Especially the review of 2017 and Jay Cutler as well as your other GM moves. I really hope some of the key people from the Dolphins read your articles is really spot on the job

    • admin

      The check is in the mail for that one… I’m married, so compliments are rare. Jimmy is young an single, so I’m sure he’s smiling, but not as much as me… I’ll consider your compliment as a Christmas gift!!!

      • dolphinst

        Haha, well merry Christmas guys and keep up the good work! Our Dolphins will get to the promised land someday, maybe even with this staff with some seasoning. Really your prescription for the Dolphins is good advice for life too! Disciplined, dependable, mentally tough, and productive!!

        • admin

          Thanks brother… now we are on to 2018 officially. Merry Christmas to you and yours.

          “Really your prescription for the Dolphins is good advice for life too! Disciplined, dependable, mentally tough, and productive!!”
          100%

  • Lemmus

    …LMAO!!! …and iirc, the Ravens have to lose both of those games …but either way, I’ll take the Lotto 🐬

    • admin

      fixed it… I was going off Jimmy’s article… I fixed it up a bit, but didn’t check the ‘path’. Never thought there was a reason to. Hope I have eat my shoes on it… they’d taste delicious.