Phins New TE Escobar Is A Cautionary Tale in Drafting
Phins New TE Escobar Is A Cautionary Tale in Drafting
Escobar is a former 2nd Rd Pick that had high expectations
Escobar was once a darling of Mike Mayock… but today, not so much
Most expect the Dolphins to draft a Tight End with their 2nd or 3rd RD pick. Tight End is one of the Phins greatest needs going into the 2018 Season. Conventional wisdom would be for them to use one of their top picks to fill the hole.
Mike Gesicki, Penn State, Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State, and Hayden Hurst, South Carolina are near-unanimously considered the top 3 prospects at the position in the 2018 Draft…
…But all this hype doesn’t mean that these players will ever match these expectations when they face the pros.
The Dolphins newly acquired TE Gavin Eosbar is a perfect example of draft predictions and evaluations not equalling the pro career.
Escobar had good numbers in college and all the physical tools
This isn’t to say he hasn’t flashed. He has… although it’s been quite briefly. In 2013 he had 9 catches for 139 yards with a 14.9 avg. and 2 TDs. In 2014 he had 9 catches for 101 yard with 11.7 Avg. and 4 Tds. There’s an excellent film study of Escobar here.
But after 2014 his production plummeted… and pay per head services have now all but been labeled Escobar a bust after 3 teams tried to unlock his talent and failed to do so.
Escobar highlights the obstacles that the Dolphins face in this coming draft.
A 2nd RD pick is extremely valuable, especially to a regime that’s in a sink or swim moment. Miami can’t waste such a valuable pick… and they also can’t enter this season with just the TEs currently on the roster.
But selecting the right player is far more complicated than simply tallying up stats from college and the combine. It’s key to remember that most players don’t ever live up to the expectations of the teams drafting them.
This will put great pressure on the Dolphins to nail their TE pick.
Omar Kelly has rightly pointed out that this pick will be more complicated because the vast majority of TEs in this draft can’t inline-block. Miami needs a three-down TE because they don’t have on on the roster. Escobar, Darby, and Duarte aren’t exceptional blockers. Gray can block fairly well, but he isn’t a threat down the seam.
Miami must ‘Go Fish’ and reel in a winner
This puts them in a bit of a pickle. Not only do they need to find a player that can succeed on the pro level, but they must find a complete TE in a draft full of hybrids. Not an easy task… but it may just be the pick that could make or break the Phins draft.
This should eliminate Mike Gesicki who is a horrendous blocker and move the Phins sights on Hayden Hurst, who did a nice job blocking. Since there’s no guarantee that Hurst will be there at #42, Miami will likely wait for their 2nd pick with fingers crossed… unless they have another, later round, TE in mind. Whatever their plans are, they’d better nail the pick, find one post-draft, or unlock the potential of the players they have. It will definitely be interesting to see how and if they resolve this issue. It could go a long way towards saving this regime… if they do. Go Phins!!!
We need to go at Dalton Shultz in the 4th round to 6th round. He is the Best blocker and has great work ethics. We should draft Ethan Wolf as a un drated free agent.
I like Shultz. I like the thought of drafting Andrews/Hurst/Goedert and doubling up with players such as Shultz or Cam Serigne (Fasano clone) or Jordan Akins. Can’t go wrong with Shultz though.
This has to be the year Miami gets one of the top 3 or 4 TEs in the draft. Enough is enough already. We need a mismatch, not a deficiency.
That is why I am squeezing for a LBer at #11. Enough is enough already. A play maker, not a target.
I understand being torn with staying at the number 11 or trying to trade up. Here we Go! But! Looked at the Dolphins last 5 or 6 years of 1st round picks. Those were the trade back years for more picks, just my opinion.
Here’s are the first round picks starting 2009. My questioned the dolphins are not getting first round trade value for these high picks. Surely this cannot be the Norm across the league Mike?
2009 25 Vontae Davis Cornerback Illinois
2010 28 Jared Odrick DT Penn State
2011 15 Mike Pouncey Center Florida
2012 8 Ryan Tannehill Quarterback Texas A&M
2013 3 Dion Jordan Defensive end Oregon
2014 19 Ja’Wuan James Offensive tackle Tennessee
2015 14 DeVante Parker Wide receiver University of Louisville
Quick thought on Miami schedule: No Monday night game 🙁 No Sunday night game 🙁 15 of 16 games 1pm start (routine is needed) 🙂 🙂 Home opener 🙂 🙂 🙂 Late bye 🙂 🙂 🙂 1 cold weather game (Dec. or later) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 No west coast trips 🙂 🙂 Thurs. night game followed by 10 days to prepare at home for the Jets 🙂 🙂 Bye followed by @ Indy, Home vs Bills, Home vs Pats (make or break part of schedule) 🙂 🙂 🙂
15 of 16 games at 1 pm: Means the Dolphins have not earned prime time or other words not many in the country wants to watch the Miami Dolphins. Having to many boring project players will never earned prime time TV. Miami needs players who can sale Prime time Tickets. Who are Those college players in the Draft.
2017 Season to Date: •Saturday Night Football Audience Grows, ABC Wins the Night Through the first two weeks of the season, ABC’s Saturday Night Football is up 49% from the first two games of last season. Additionally, each of the first two weeks of the season, ABC won the night among households, viewers and all key male and adult demos on the heels of SNF •ESPN/ABC’s Audience 156% Bigger than Fox The 19 games on ESPN and ABC have averaged 3,766,000 viewers, 156% higher than the 11 on Fox and FS1 •Most-Watched Games Air on ESPN and ABC Through the first two weeks of the college football season, ABC and ESPN have combined to televise the six most-watched games across all networks and nine of the top 10.
Rank Network Match up TV Viewers Date
1 ABC Florida State vs. Alabama 12,343,000 Sat, Sept. 2 2 ABC Oklahoma at Ohio State 8,086,000 Sat, Sept. 9 3 ABC Michigan at Florida 7,655,000 Sat, Sept. 2 4 ESPN Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech 5,141,000 Mon, Sept. 4 5 ESPN Ohio State at Indiana 5,135,000 Thur, Aug. 31 6 ABC West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech 4,647,000 Sun, Sept. 3 7 NBC Georgia at Notre Dame 4,089,000 Sat, Sept. 9 8 ABC Pittsburgh at Penn State 3,702,000 Sat, Sept. 9 9 ABC Cincinnati at Michigan 3,614,000 Sat, Sept. 9 10 ESPN Auburn at Clemson 3,368,000 Sat, Sept. 9
Those top teams had some offense and defensive players the country like to watched. This draft means to me trading back and getting those players who will sell prime time tickets.
Love the info Steve. I want a trade back as well, as long as Smith/Edmunds/Fitz are not on the board. You said it best Miami hasn’t earned a prime time game. I like the 1pm starts for the Fins, routine, routine, routine.
Looking at the schedule at little closer, it seems to get better.
-Miami Plays the Jets (1st match up), Jets coming off a Monday night game -Miami plays the Raiders in which the Raiders come to Miami following a game @ Mile High -Miami plays the Pats (1st match up), Pats coming off a Sunday night game -Miami plays the Bears following their (Bears) bye -Miami plays the Lions following their (Lions) bye -Miami’s Thurs. night game comes after a home game, while Houston comes off a road game -Miami plays the Packers, packers come off a Sunday night game (Pats) -Miami plays the Vikes, Vikes coming off a Monday night game
*Though they may seem to be minimal variables, every little advantage counts. Having only 1 prime time game, helps Miami in many cases, especially short weeks, road games, travel, etc. May be a silver lining within the schedule after all. 🙂 🙂 🙂
This is the time not to panic. The Dolphins have a plan, just stick with the plan and work the plan. There will be a lot players in this draft that teams will draft to high and to early. Thick with the plan.
QB’s 1st round late Lamar Jackson (with more picks) 3rd round luke Faulk 5th round Nic Shimonek 7th round to un-drafted free agent Allen Arkansas
2nd round Line Backer 3rd round tight end or QB 4th round R/B & DT 6th round Guard 7th round Kicker/Tight End/
“There will be a lot players in this draft that teams will draft to high and to early. ” Agree on that… hope aren’t among them. You think Nic will go in the 5th? I’m still not sold on Jackson… not saying I’m unsold either… more like undecided. Think the DT need to go higher than the 4th. I do like more and more Dunners Hurst pick. But I still do love me some Vea. Take 10 pounds of fat off him and replace it with 5 pds of muscle and he’ll be an impact on 3 downs. This will be a very interesting 1st 15 picks or so…
This is the situation with our Nemesis the England Patriots: Tom Brady is getting older and the Patriots will go after a quarterback in this draft and other pieces. Still they will have to gamble like everyone else.
This draft the Dolphins should trade back for as many picks as they can get 2nd,3rd and 4th rounders.
We have too many holes to fill. Trade spot 11th back to 28th spot which will warrant these points: 1st round picked 28th =660 points 2nd round picked 60th = 300 points 3rd round picked 92nd=132 points 4th round picked 124th= 48 points
Added to our regular 1st round,2nd-42nd,3rd-73,4th-131,4th-123, 6th-209th, 7th 227th, 7th 229th. This will work. Possible trade partners: 26. Atlanta
Admin for sure the Dolphins need a blocking Tight End with good route running skill. Schultz will make the team just because he blocks better than the top Tight ends in this draft. Ethan has been knocked for being a poor blocker but that’s questionable, I think Ethan will help a struggling QB for sure with his breaking free route running ability.
Mark Andrews would be my target. Hurst is 25 years old. None of the top TE are good blockers so if they cant settle for pass catchers, target multiple guys and draft whoever falls farthest. If none are there later, dont bother. Just taking a guy in the second round because youre afraid of missing him doesnt make him more likely to suceed. I like Goedert too but because he played at a small school its harder to see if his blocking translates as well.
Dude, you are a genius or off base… But I lend towards on target. The penetration power is exceptional… Dunner has been sounding his bell for a time and a time and a half… Papa, you might be tossing a bullseye. After watching his film, i sure as hell won’t be a scoffer… a trade back and Hurst might be a mega move for sure…PFF love him to death!!!
Hey, Papa… mixed and matched my response to two comments… late night and a couple of cans of beer can do that. When the wife gives me a night off from baby duty… I can get a bit crazy 🙂 In my confusion, I believe I was answering Dunner and his love of Maurice Hurst the DT, but somehow mixing who I was responding too… ohhh, well. I guess it will be mulligan. I do agree the Top three TE’s all have warts and that a first or second rounder might be too expensive to expend on one of them. My concern is can the Phins staff find a player mid rounds who can be a 3 down TE? I haven’t watched Andrews enough… but the knock on him is that he isn’t an interested run blocker. What’s your take on his ability to be a 3 down player? Sorry for the incoherent reply… 3 kids 6 and under will do it to you…
1st round
28. Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama. https://youtu.be/GWryYBBAylE
(Second round for trading backed in the 1st).
49. Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama. https://youtu.be/nWwcT33pO2A
Trading Back in the 1st picked: Second round
(60 Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan). https://youtu.be/ny_rp8WWOvU
Third round:
73. Jaylen Samuels NC State https://youtu.be/wL5EIUFQ5E8
92 Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon https://youtu.be/l9bm20hsess or (for trading back in the 1st)
90. Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State. https://youtu.be/gtyRzWuNvcI
Fourth round:
123 Nic Shimonek QB Texas Tech https://youtu.be/9uHRs4sWNxI
131 Adam Shaheen https://youtu.be/ITIiKgNjgL0
(Trade back in the 1st round)
124 Dalton Schultz TE Sandford https://youtu.be/SfX6cIgMnEc
6th Rounder
209th Keke Coutee https://youtu.be/ARC4WCYJgFc
7th Rounder
227th Sean Welsh Iowa center https://youtu.be/rR8V1imnSPE
229th Jack Cichy ILB Wisconsin Highlights https://youtu.be/iVJq-p-7yok
These players are the ticket seller’s!
Admin
Here’s the best breakdown of this thight end class.
https://www.ndtscouting.com/ledyard-2018-nfl-draft-final-positional-rankings-tight-ends/
We need to go at Dalton Shultz in the 4th round to 6th round. He is the Best blocker and has great work ethics.
We should draft Ethan Wolf as a un drated free agent.
I like Shultz. I like the thought of drafting Andrews/Hurst/Goedert and doubling up with players such as Shultz or Cam Serigne (Fasano clone) or Jordan Akins. Can’t go wrong with Shultz though.
This has to be the year Miami gets one of the top 3 or 4 TEs in the draft. Enough is enough already. We need a mismatch, not a deficiency.
That is why I am squeezing for a LBer at #11. Enough is enough already. A play maker, not a target.
Hello Michael Curtis · Stony Brook University
I understand being torn with staying at the number 11 or trying to trade up. Here we Go! But! Looked at the Dolphins last 5 or 6 years of 1st round picks. Those were the trade back years for more picks, just my opinion.
Here’s are the first round picks starting 2009. My questioned the dolphins are not getting first round trade value for these high picks. Surely this cannot be the Norm across the league Mike?
2009
25
Vontae Davis
Cornerback
Illinois
2010
28
Jared Odrick
DT
Penn State
2011
15
Mike Pouncey
Center
Florida
2012
8
Ryan Tannehill
Quarterback
Texas A&M
2013
3
Dion Jordan
Defensive end
Oregon
2014
19
Ja’Wuan James
Offensive tackle
Tennessee
2015
14
DeVante Parker
Wide receiver
University of Louisville
2016
13
Laremy Tunsil
Offensive tackle
Mississippi
Quick thought on Miami schedule:
No Monday night game 🙁
No Sunday night game 🙁
15 of 16 games 1pm start (routine is needed) 🙂 🙂
Home opener 🙂 🙂 🙂
Late bye 🙂 🙂 🙂
1 cold weather game (Dec. or later) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
No west coast trips 🙂 🙂
Thurs. night game followed by 10 days to prepare at home for the Jets 🙂 🙂
Bye followed by @ Indy, Home vs Bills, Home vs Pats (make or break part of schedule) 🙂 🙂 🙂
Dunner
Thanks for the posting:
15 of 16 games at 1 pm: Means the Dolphins have not earned prime time or other words not many in the country wants to watch the Miami Dolphins. Having to many boring project players will never earned prime time TV. Miami needs players who can sale Prime time Tickets. Who are Those college players in the Draft.
Hey Dunner
Here’s an article may interest you. Second week of college games, 2017 viewed are listed below.
https://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2017/09/oklahoma-ohio-state-8-2-million-viewers-watched-game-week-2-across-networks-espns-networks-air-four-five-watched-games/
2017 Season to Date:
•Saturday Night Football Audience Grows, ABC Wins the Night
Through the first two weeks of the season, ABC’s Saturday Night Football is up 49% from the first two games of last season. Additionally, each of the first two weeks of the season, ABC won the night among households, viewers and all key male and adult demos on the heels of SNF
•ESPN/ABC’s Audience 156% Bigger than Fox
The 19 games on ESPN and ABC have averaged 3,766,000 viewers, 156% higher than the 11 on Fox and FS1
•Most-Watched Games Air on ESPN and ABC
Through the first two weeks of the college football season, ABC and ESPN have combined to televise the six most-watched games across all networks and nine of the top 10.
Rank Network Match up TV Viewers Date
1 ABC Florida State vs. Alabama 12,343,000 Sat, Sept. 2
2 ABC Oklahoma at Ohio State 8,086,000 Sat, Sept. 9
3 ABC Michigan at Florida 7,655,000 Sat, Sept. 2
4 ESPN Tennessee vs. Georgia Tech 5,141,000 Mon, Sept. 4
5 ESPN Ohio State at Indiana 5,135,000 Thur, Aug. 31
6 ABC West Virginia vs. Virginia Tech 4,647,000 Sun, Sept. 3
7 NBC Georgia at Notre Dame 4,089,000 Sat, Sept. 9
8 ABC Pittsburgh at Penn State 3,702,000 Sat, Sept. 9
9 ABC Cincinnati at Michigan 3,614,000 Sat, Sept. 9
10 ESPN Auburn at Clemson 3,368,000 Sat, Sept. 9
Those top teams had some offense and defensive players the country like to watched.
This draft means to me trading back and getting those players who will sell prime time tickets.
Dilly Dilly!!!
Love the info Steve. I want a trade back as well, as long as Smith/Edmunds/Fitz are not on the board. You said it best Miami hasn’t earned a prime time game. I like the 1pm starts for the Fins, routine, routine, routine.
Will check out later tonight or in the am when I can watch in piece and quiet. TY
Looking at the schedule at little closer, it seems to get better.
-Miami Plays the Jets (1st match up), Jets coming off a Monday night game
-Miami plays the Raiders in which the Raiders come to Miami following a game @ Mile High
-Miami plays the Pats (1st match up), Pats coming off a Sunday night game
-Miami plays the Bears following their (Bears) bye
-Miami plays the Lions following their (Lions) bye
-Miami’s Thurs. night game comes after a home game, while Houston comes off a road game
-Miami plays the Packers, packers come off a Sunday night game (Pats)
-Miami plays the Vikes, Vikes coming off a Monday night game
*Though they may seem to be minimal variables, every little advantage counts. Having only 1 prime time game, helps Miami in many cases, especially short weeks, road games, travel, etc.
May be a silver lining within the schedule after all. 🙂 🙂 🙂
https://www.thesportster.com/football/mel-kipers-top-15-biggest-draft-mistakes/
Mel Kiper’s Top 15 Biggest Draft Mistakes
8 Recent NFL First Round Picks Who Look Like Busts (And 8 Late Rounders Who Look Like Absolute Steals)
https://www.thesportster.com/football/nfl-first-round-picks-late-rounders-steals/
We’ve been pretty close with the talent selection over the years:
April 13, 2014 Jimmy Bourbon Dolphins news, Miami Dolphins News, Rumors and Rumblings
https://phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-miami-looking-at-in-state-running-back-for-draft/
What Trading back in the First will do for this Draft
April 9, 2015 Jimmy Bourbon Miami Dolphins News
https://phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-what-trading-back-in-the-first-will-do-for-this-draft/
Miami Dolphins Draft news: What you need to know about David Johnson
March 31, 2015 Jimmy Bourbon Miami Dolphins News
https://phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-middle-round-running-back-prospect/
What does Kiper Know?
April 20, 2015 Jimmy Bourbon Miami Dolphins New
https://phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-what-does-kiper-know/
Why Ajayi is just as good as Gurley
May 19, 2015 Jimmy Bourbon Miami Dolphins News
https://phinsnews.com/miami-dolphins-news-why-ajayi-is-just-as-good-as-gurley/
This is the time not to panic. The Dolphins have a plan, just stick with the plan and work the plan. There will be a lot players in this draft that teams will draft to high and to early. Thick with the plan.
QB’s
1st round late Lamar Jackson (with more picks)
3rd round luke Faulk
5th round Nic Shimonek
7th round to un-drafted free agent Allen Arkansas
2nd round Line Backer
3rd round tight end or QB
4th round R/B & DT
6th round Guard
7th round Kicker/Tight End/
“There will be a lot players in this draft that teams will draft to high and to early. ” Agree on that… hope aren’t among them. You think Nic will go in the 5th? I’m still not sold on Jackson… not saying I’m unsold either… more like undecided. Think the DT need to go higher than the 4th. I do like more and more Dunners Hurst pick. But I still do love me some Vea. Take 10 pounds of fat off him and replace it with 5 pds of muscle and he’ll be an impact on 3 downs. This will be a very interesting 1st 15 picks or so…
Jackson is a possibility but I would not picked him. I think Jackson will become the Browns second quarterback in this 2018 draft.
l like hurst but will the dolphins spend a 1st round for him? Best to trade back into the twenties, then it would be okay.
Here is some film study on Hurst.
https://www.garnetandblackattack.com/2017/9/6/16255292/film-study-how-hayden-hurst-bolstered-south-carolinas-gamecocks-pass-protection-vs-nc-state-2017
Admin
This is the situation with our Nemesis the England Patriots: Tom Brady is getting older and the Patriots will go after a quarterback in this draft and other pieces. Still they will have to gamble like everyone else.
This draft the Dolphins should trade back for as many picks as they can get 2nd,3rd and 4th rounders.
We have too many holes to fill. Trade spot 11th back to 28th spot which will warrant these points:
1st round picked 28th =660 points
2nd round picked 60th = 300 points
3rd round picked 92nd=132 points
4th round picked 124th= 48 points
Added to our regular 1st round,2nd-42nd,3rd-73,4th-131,4th-123, 6th-209th, 7th 227th, 7th 229th. This will work.
Possible trade partners:
26. Atlanta
27. New Orleans
28. Pittsburgh
29. Jacksonville
30. Minnesota
31. New England
32. Philadelphia
On the Honest note I think the DT or Tight end will be the safest late 1st round picked.
He had a visit with the Jag’s.
Dalton Schultz Stanford TE Best Blocking Tight End in the PAC 12 5-7 rounder
https://youtu.be/SfX6cIgMnEc
2018 NFL Draft Y Option: Dalton Schultz’s Route Running
https://youtu.be/694dlgiK6Zo
Ethan may be an undrated free agent?
Ethan Wolf Tennessee TE https://youtu.be/7ZlogjJgvy4
https://www.ndtscouting.com/marino-ethan-wolf-foundational-skill-set-sunday-tight-end/
Admin for sure the Dolphins need a blocking Tight End with good route running skill. Schultz will make the team just because he blocks better than the top Tight ends in this draft. Ethan has been knocked for being a poor blocker but that’s questionable, I think Ethan will help a struggling QB for sure with his breaking free route running ability.
Mark Andrews would be my target. Hurst is 25 years old. None of the top TE are good blockers so if they cant settle for pass catchers, target multiple guys and draft whoever falls farthest. If none are there later, dont bother. Just taking a guy in the second round because youre afraid of missing him doesnt make him more likely to suceed. I like Goedert too but because he played at a small school its harder to see if his blocking translates as well.
Dude, you are a genius or off base… But I lend towards on target. The penetration power is exceptional… Dunner has been sounding his bell for a time and a time and a half… Papa, you might be tossing a bullseye. After watching his film, i sure as hell won’t be a scoffer… a trade back and Hurst might be a mega move for sure…PFF love him to death!!!
Hey, Papa… mixed and matched my response to two comments… late night and a couple of cans of beer can do that. When the wife gives me a night off from baby duty… I can get a bit crazy 🙂 In my confusion, I believe I was answering Dunner and his love of Maurice Hurst the DT, but somehow mixing who I was responding too… ohhh, well. I guess it will be mulligan. I do agree the Top three TE’s all have warts and that a first or second rounder might be too expensive to expend on one of them. My concern is can the Phins staff find a player mid rounds who can be a 3 down TE? I haven’t watched Andrews enough… but the knock on him is that he isn’t an interested run blocker. What’s your take on his ability to be a 3 down player? Sorry for the incoherent reply… 3 kids 6 and under will do it to you…