… But, more than a few Phins news fans had some very good thoughts that forced me to re-think the situation.
The move to #6 cost almost half the 49ers haul
After rolling it over in my head against recent events, I’m a bit concerned it might be harder than I originally thought to get ‘true value’ with this pick.
Thanks for bursting my bubble guys!
Now, I still think Miami is in an excellent position to get a good player however it goes. A fair point from some is these picks are freebies and Miami doesn’t need to ‘cover it’ because it’s house money. The fact they moved up has put them in the position to get a special player, which would have been less likely at #12. Also, no matter how it turns out, they netted an extra 1st and 3rd Round pick.
Both are fair points…
… But, the points from some readers… and what I’m seeing now is also a ‘caution sign’ that’s a fair point as well:
Options of ‘legitimate value’ at #6 w/ extra value attached
Kyle Pitts (physical freak and production to match)
Penei Sewell (physical freak at a critical position, but
Trade back in a haul of draft picks from a desperate team (very lucky to even have the option).
One of the leftover QB options due to the overvalue of the QB position. This is such a high-risk move due to the low rate of success with QBs and the fact Tua is on the team.
Now, if Miami misses at #6, the ‘freebie draft picks’ wasted would be pretty high if you add in the 2nd Round pick for Rosen.
Thankfully, the odds with the Best Football Betting Software are very good that they won’t miss on a player because there are too many good options available. Still, ‘the problem’ is because of the extra value attached to the Phins 6th Round pick, Miami must do better than ‘good”.
Digging into the option at #6
Sewell is a physical freak with incredible agility and strength… but, he is a bit of a project and missed last season.Remember, Miami invested blue chips in 2nd RD Hunt and 1st RD Jackson. If the Phins draft Sewell and all three offensive linemen turn into quality players, the Phins will get priced out of one or two when their second contract comes around in a few years. This isn’t smart shopping with that many high-value draft assets.
Remember, Miami also appears to be in desperate need of a Center.
So, while Sewell (or possibly Rashawn Slater) is an excellent prospect, no way do I think spending all the picks it took to get back to #6 makes drafting Sewell the wisest move.
Now, I love the offensive line and know it’s the key to success in the NFL, so I wouldn’t hate either Slater or Sewell. I’m just not certain they offer the best value.
What I’m not big on is drafting receivers in the Top 10… unless they scream super special.Ja’Marr Chase has a ton of great qualities and could very well be excellent… still, at 6’0” he doesn’t bring elite size. Size is a huge X-factor at the receiver position and makes life a whole lot easier. Yes, plenty of excellent receivers hover around the 6’0” mark, so I’m not knocking Chase. But, I just can’t see how Chase is a better bet than Pitts.
Look at the receivers taken over the last ten years of draft. Few have been taken Top 10 and not many of them have been worth the price tag:
Tight End / Wide Receiver Kyle Pitts is 6’6” 245lbs and runs a 4.4 forty. At 6 inches taller and near 40lbs heavier, Pitts ran only .06 seconds less than Chase. Pitts has the ability to play the X, Y, and Z receiver at some level of competency and is a quality route runner with an insane wingspan. All of this is backed by the high production of a rare college career. Bookmaking Guidelines – Learn How to Read Them and Use Them.
Unique is the best way to describe Pitts. Of all the players in the draft, the description of unique might fit him best. This is a great sign for that rare term generational talent. Generational talent certainly would be worth the haul to get to the 6th pick… Bookmaking Guidelines – How to Start-Up with ESL Sports Betting
… Question is will he be there when Miami picks?
P.S. Hey, guys… I was talked into doing some YouTube stuff. The video below was the genesis of this article:
Najee Harris CAREER (46TD) the closest thing to Derrick Henry (Why take risk with off field issues, possibly bust wide outs etc. guessing). Najee can be 40 to 50 % of the offense when struggling.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans Henry is the oldest running back on this list and has taken an awful lot of punishment. However, he also isn’t like anyone else on this list. Henry led the NFL in rushing by nearly 500 yards in 2020. His 17 rushing touchdowns also led the league. Everyone understands exactly what Henry is. He won’t catch the ball, but he will rack up huge rushing days and tons of touchdowns.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 588 rushing yards entering Week 7, despite having only played five games so far in the 2020 season. Ryan Tannehill is having an MVP-caliber season: first in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVOA, and third in the league with a 113.1 passer rating. Both are obviously indispensable cogs in the undefeated Tennessee Titans machine. But this edition of Stats That Matter breaks down the real secret of the Titans’ offense: the way Henry and Tannehill complement and create opportunities for each other.
Hmmmm… I’m very high on Williams 2nd or 3rd. Etinene also grabs me. I like Harris, but like Henry he needs an Oline. Our current line doesn’t work well with power backs as our recent history shows. Our lack of runblocking ability favors the shifty runner. Harris is an elite pass catcher and if Miami adds to the Oline… then we could be talking. But, I’d rather another position at 18… maybe because I like Williams so much. It also depends on what we do at #6. Our Oline just isn’t good enough and we need to spend some Day 2 picks on the OL… Center for sure and tackle? We are lighter on picks in the back end with all the traders. We have 6 Day 1 and Day 2… and only 3 Day 3. We certainly need a center so that’s 5 Day 1 and 2 picks remaining. We need edge and LB help… tackle too. I don’t know Steve… you have me thinking… hmmmmmm… thanks for hurting my head pre coffee 🙂 What are your picks for Day 1 and 2… not even names… positions.
Funny… Jimmy sent an article about your sentiments… editing it up now. I’m going to have to write an opposing one now 🙂 Not that I disagree with you both… Harris is highly intriguing. I just … well… I’ll write it up… maybe I’ll change my mind as I study it out. Harris is a beast.
I really liked the podcast. The draft is really not very complicated if you have done your homework. First, you list your needs and then prioritize them. Second, you list athletes that could fill those needs. Then you prioritize each positional list of players. Our number 1 pick come at number 6. You may have scratched off 5 players if everyone had lists similar to yours. This year, everyone predicts that 3 to 4 of those picks will be quarterbacks. They won’t be on our list because the team has stated that Tua is the man. Since we have some glaring needs, a quarterback selection would only come if a top prospect dropped to us. I suppose if Trevor Lawrence was there at 6, we would take him! Ha! Ha! Right.
So logic tells you that someone on your list is going to get snatched up before your pick. I will guess and speculate that Pitts gets picked with #4 or 5. If he isn’t picked then Jamar Chase is gone. You might get one of these players at 6. A trade could change all of this or maybe set us up to have both players on the board. This is why you have lists and check off players.
The question will be who is left at #6 that is on our list? If Atlanta takes Pitts and Cincinnati takes a lineman at 5, you could take Chase. If Dallas trades for #4 or 5, they might take Pitts or a lineman. Hell, Jerry might want Chase, who knows. You take who is at the top of your list.
The same is true later on in the First round. Maybe we get our wide receiver there! Maybe there is a stud lineman that slipped through the cracks. Maybe it is a defensive player that tops our list of player at a need position.
NOTE: I am not so sure that Tight End is a top priority for the Dolphins. Tua needs help at WR and RB more than TE. Linebacker might be a bigger need than TE. It will all depend on who is available when we pick that is on our list of good candidates. Forget all of the pick value. Picks become currency when you are on the board. You spend it on what will make Tua a better quarterback or keep the Dolphins in the lead!
Thanks a ton… I hate taking pictures and in front of a camera isn’t my bag… wifey talked me into it. So much more snug behind a keyboard. I know you are a fair and hard critic… so, much thanks for the compliment, Van–really. As for Tua, I’d be willing to bet a TE would be the best security blanket for him. He started working well with Gesicki… but, Gesicki has a limited route tree. Pitts could line up as X,Y, and Z. Also his route will be easier to digest in his progressions because they will mostly be inside. I think Gesicki and Pitts could really put Tua in a great position to use his mobility and agility to throw on the move. Look at all the TDs he had from TE in the redzone. I’m certainly not going to claim Pitts will be this or that or Chase or whoever is certain to be a lesser player… But, I remember Marino and Jackson… without good receivers, Marino and Jackson made some real hay. We need a big play TE at some point it’s just the easiest years to get, so this will be our best chance to get one. .. … But, I can see other possibilities… I just like the odds on Pitts best.
RBs in the modern game are 90% product of theO-line. I’d rather spend big on the OL than RB. Some good RBs in RD2. I really like Ahmed and Gaskin… somewhat injury-prone is Gaskin and Ahmed needs to get much better in pass blocking. BUT, I realllllyyyy believe they are underated. I was turned onto Javonte Williams by some readers… as a 2nd RD value I like him better than Harris at 18.
“Forget all of the pick value. Picks become currency when you are on the board. You spend it on what will make Tua a better quarterback or keep the Dolphins in the lead!” I disagree here mostly. Miami could easily have nabbed a quality WR in this draft at #12 and then add another 1st RD talent next year with the San Fran pick… who’s to say they won’t suck again? In theory we could spend two Top 10 picks on who we draft this year! Tua doesn’t need to go to the HOF this year… he just needs steady progression. Miami can’t rebuild the Alabama O in the NFL. Tua has pieces here… and while he needs more, he must learn to make more with less. Not getting value means he losses opportunities to get that talent. If Tua has a velocity increase and stays healthy…. it will all be fine… and the Phins would look to make their move in 2022 and 2023. That extra pick in 2022 we gave away would be another piece to the winning puzzle. We spent a 2nd on Rosen that could have been the Center we need in Erik McCoy picked by the Saints with our pick… we then missed out on the Gs in a rush and drafted Dieter, who at the moment isn’t much. That’s a 2nd and a 3rd pretty much wasted and we now need to use a pick to get that Center if Dieter doesn’t find a home there. You do have a point here to an extent, but I’m a cheap German though and I fully believe in waste not want not. Not getting value can create a watershed moment at some point. Anyway, thanks for reading and watching…
Nice article! I agree and think Pitts would be best option. However, as you said, will he be there at #6? I don’t think so. Atlanta needs TE/WR help. Cincy needs a quality player to with AJ Green to give young Burrows more weapons. So Cincy and Miami are in same boat. Young QB’s in need of solid playmaker Offensive talent. Rumor has it, or shall I say Mel Kiper, Dolphins give up some draft picks to Atlanta to move down to #4. This would ensure that they get Pitts. I am not such a fan of Kiper, but to me, the move might make sense if Pitts is our guy and Chase, Smith, etc., are distant 2nd choices. Grier moved down to #6 after giving up #3 for a reason. We could have stayed at #3 and surely had Pitts, but we can move to #4 get Pitts and still maybe have picked up additional picks. Remember when Pats had Gronk and Hernandez. This was an unstoppable combination and the Pats moved up and down the field playing pitch and catch with ease. Pats alway have put big emphasis on the TE! Maybe Flores and Grier are trying to recreate the same scenario in Miami with Pitts and Gesecki? Pitts would also give Dolphins a lethal red zone offense too! Pitts and the addtion of Fuller would give great pressure on opposing defenses, thus helping to establish a badly needed run game. What are your thoughts MJ? Thank you!
I’m super excited and somewhat worried, Stephen! I think once you reach and think about reaching again… it could be good money thrown after bad. Miami has to have a plan B… I’m just wondering if it isn’t a QB?! It seems crazy to chase any talent at 6 other than Pitts and it seems a little crazy to gamble that much with the teams in front of them. I also have to wonder since the trade that maybe Miami will deal again and maybe back… I don’t know it’s so crazy the moves they make… and not in a bad way up to this point. They are winning for sure… this pick will be a big decider on how they are ultimately evaluated. The 2 TE set of Pitts and Gesicki is very promising! I think this could some very, very, good help to Tua. Tua was developing much faster with Gesicki in his chemistry than Parker. Pitts could maybe emulate Parker’s skill set down the road… I just love Pitts in concept… who knows though about how well he’ll do on the NFL level. I think for Tua to get himself in a position to rise, he needs a very good defense, and an effective run game and quality TE play with receivers who can threaten the top of a D enough to keep them from creeping. This would allow Tua time to grow and build confidence. I think this is where they are heading… similiar template to the Tom Brady teams early in his career. I really want the kid to win… I still want a plan B though… someone suggested Mond in Day 2… thought that was a sound idea.
Exactly! Ted was a good player (eventually) drafted was too early. I love the man and he proved to be a good player long term… but, 9th overall worthy?… not with Lynch, Timmons, Willis, and Revis there… ouch! That gives me the willies… didn’t like the pick, but had a friend who was a HUGE Ginn fan and said it would be great! Sorry for the late publish… Jimmy Bourbon has a system here where I need to approve new posters… sorry, brother.
Admin
Najee Harris CAREER (46TD) the closest thing to Derrick Henry (Why take risk with off field issues, possibly bust wide outs etc. guessing). Najee can be 40 to 50 % of the offense when struggling.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Henry is the oldest running back on this list and has taken an awful lot of punishment. However, he also isn’t like anyone else on this list. Henry led the NFL in rushing by nearly 500 yards in 2020. His 17 rushing touchdowns also led the league. Everyone understands exactly what Henry is. He won’t catch the ball, but he will rack up huge rushing days and tons of touchdowns.
Derrick Henry leads the NFL with 588 rushing yards entering Week 7, despite having only played five games so far in the 2020 season. Ryan Tannehill is having an MVP-caliber season: first in the NFL in Football Outsiders DVOA, and third in the league with a 113.1 passer rating. Both are obviously indispensable cogs in the undefeated Tennessee Titans machine. But this edition of Stats That Matter breaks down the real secret of the Titans’ offense: the way Henry and Tannehill complement and create opportunities for each other.
Hmmmm… I’m very high on Williams 2nd or 3rd. Etinene also grabs me. I like Harris, but like Henry he needs an Oline. Our current line doesn’t work well with power backs as our recent history shows. Our lack of runblocking ability favors the shifty runner. Harris is an elite pass catcher and if Miami adds to the Oline… then we could be talking. But, I’d rather another position at 18… maybe because I like Williams so much. It also depends on what we do at #6. Our Oline just isn’t good enough and we need to spend some Day 2 picks on the OL… Center for sure and tackle? We are lighter on picks in the back end with all the traders. We have 6 Day 1 and Day 2… and only 3 Day 3. We certainly need a center so that’s 5 Day 1 and 2 picks remaining. We need edge and LB help… tackle too. I don’t know Steve… you have me thinking… hmmmmmm… thanks for hurting my head pre coffee 🙂 What are your picks for Day 1 and 2… not even names… positions.
Funny… Jimmy sent an article about your sentiments… editing it up now. I’m going to have to write an opposing one now 🙂 Not that I disagree with you both… Harris is highly intriguing. I just … well… I’ll write it up… maybe I’ll change my mind as I study it out. Harris is a beast.
I really liked the podcast. The draft is really not very complicated if you have done your homework. First, you list your needs and then prioritize them. Second, you list athletes that could fill those needs. Then you prioritize each positional list of players. Our number 1 pick come at number 6. You may have scratched off 5 players if everyone had lists similar to yours. This year, everyone predicts that 3 to 4 of those picks will be quarterbacks. They won’t be on our list because the team has stated that Tua is the man. Since we have some glaring needs, a quarterback selection would only come if a top prospect dropped to us. I suppose if Trevor Lawrence was there at 6, we would take him! Ha! Ha! Right.
So logic tells you that someone on your list is going to get snatched up before your pick. I will guess and speculate that Pitts gets picked with #4 or 5. If he isn’t picked then Jamar Chase is gone. You might get one of these players at 6. A trade could change all of this or maybe set us up to have both players on the board. This is why you have lists and check off players.
The question will be who is left at #6 that is on our list? If Atlanta takes Pitts and Cincinnati takes a lineman at 5, you could take Chase. If Dallas trades for #4 or 5, they might take Pitts or a lineman. Hell, Jerry might want Chase, who knows. You take who is at the top of your list.
The same is true later on in the First round. Maybe we get our wide receiver there! Maybe there is a stud lineman that slipped through the cracks. Maybe it is a defensive player that tops our list of player at a need position.
NOTE: I am not so sure that Tight End is a top priority for the Dolphins. Tua needs help at WR and RB more than TE. Linebacker might be a bigger need than TE. It will all depend on who is available when we pick that is on our list of good candidates. Forget all of the pick value. Picks become currency when you are on the board. You spend it on what will make Tua a better quarterback or keep the Dolphins in the lead!
Thanks a ton… I hate taking pictures and in front of a camera isn’t my bag… wifey talked me into it. So much more snug behind a keyboard. I know you are a fair and hard critic… so, much thanks for the compliment, Van–really.
As for Tua, I’d be willing to bet a TE would be the best security blanket for him. He started working well with Gesicki… but, Gesicki has a limited route tree. Pitts could line up as X,Y, and Z. Also his route will be easier to digest in his progressions because they will mostly be inside. I think Gesicki and Pitts could really put Tua in a great position to use his mobility and agility to throw on the move. Look at all the TDs he had from TE in the redzone. I’m certainly not going to claim Pitts will be this or that or Chase or whoever is certain to be a lesser player… But, I remember Marino and Jackson… without good receivers, Marino and Jackson made some real hay. We need a big play TE at some point it’s just the easiest years to get, so this will be our best chance to get one. ..
… But, I can see other possibilities… I just like the odds on Pitts best.
RBs in the modern game are 90% product of theO-line. I’d rather spend big on the OL than RB. Some good RBs in RD2.
I really like Ahmed and Gaskin… somewhat injury-prone is Gaskin and Ahmed needs to get much better in pass blocking. BUT, I realllllyyyy believe they are underated. I was turned onto Javonte Williams by some readers… as a 2nd RD value I like him better than Harris at 18.
“Forget all of the pick value. Picks become currency when you are on the board. You spend it on what will make Tua a better quarterback or keep the Dolphins in the lead!”
I disagree here mostly. Miami could easily have nabbed a quality WR in this draft at #12 and then add another 1st RD talent next year with the San Fran pick… who’s to say they won’t suck again? In theory we could spend two Top 10 picks on who we draft this year! Tua doesn’t need to go to the HOF this year… he just needs steady progression. Miami can’t rebuild the Alabama O in the NFL. Tua has pieces here… and while he needs more, he must learn to make more with less. Not getting value means he losses opportunities to get that talent. If Tua has a velocity increase and stays healthy…. it will all be fine… and the Phins would look to make their move in 2022 and 2023. That extra pick in 2022 we gave away would be another piece to the winning puzzle. We spent a 2nd on Rosen that could have been the Center we need in Erik McCoy picked by the Saints with our pick… we then missed out on the Gs in a rush and drafted Dieter, who at the moment isn’t much. That’s a 2nd and a 3rd pretty much wasted and we now need to use a pick to get that Center if Dieter doesn’t find a home there. You do have a point here to an extent, but I’m a cheap German though and I fully believe in waste not want not. Not getting value can create a watershed moment at some point. Anyway, thanks for reading and watching…
MJ,
Nice article! I agree and think Pitts would be best option. However, as you said, will he be there at #6? I don’t think so. Atlanta needs TE/WR help. Cincy needs a quality player to with AJ Green to give young Burrows more weapons. So Cincy and Miami are in same boat. Young QB’s in need of solid playmaker Offensive talent. Rumor has it, or shall I say Mel Kiper, Dolphins give up some draft picks to Atlanta to move down to #4. This would ensure that they get Pitts. I am not such a fan of Kiper, but to me, the move might make sense if Pitts is our guy and Chase, Smith, etc., are distant 2nd choices. Grier moved down to #6 after giving up #3 for a reason. We could have stayed at #3 and surely had Pitts, but we can move to #4 get Pitts and still maybe have picked up additional picks. Remember when Pats had Gronk and Hernandez. This was an unstoppable combination and the Pats moved up and down the field playing pitch and catch with ease. Pats alway have put big emphasis on the TE! Maybe Flores and Grier are trying to recreate the same scenario in Miami with Pitts and Gesecki? Pitts would also give Dolphins a lethal red zone offense too! Pitts and the addtion of Fuller would give great pressure on opposing defenses, thus helping to establish a badly needed run game. What are your thoughts MJ? Thank you!
I’m super excited and somewhat worried, Stephen! I think once you reach and think about reaching again… it could be good money thrown after bad. Miami has to have a plan B… I’m just wondering if it isn’t a QB?! It seems crazy to chase any talent at 6 other than Pitts and it seems a little crazy to gamble that much with the teams in front of them. I also have to wonder since the trade that maybe Miami will deal again and maybe back… I don’t know it’s so crazy the moves they make… and not in a bad way up to this point. They are winning for sure… this pick will be a big decider on how they are ultimately evaluated. The 2 TE set of Pitts and Gesicki is very promising! I think this could some very, very, good help to Tua. Tua was developing much faster with Gesicki in his chemistry than Parker. Pitts could maybe emulate Parker’s skill set down the road… I just love Pitts in concept… who knows though about how well he’ll do on the NFL level. I think for Tua to get himself in a position to rise, he needs a very good defense, and an effective run game and quality TE play with receivers who can threaten the top of a D enough to keep them from creeping. This would allow Tua time to grow and build confidence. I think this is where they are heading… similiar template to the Tom Brady teams early in his career. I really want the kid to win… I still want a plan B though… someone suggested Mond in Day 2… thought that was a sound idea.
No Ted Ginn??
Exactly! Ted was a good player (eventually) drafted was too early. I love the man and he proved to be a good player long term… but, 9th overall worthy?… not with Lynch, Timmons, Willis, and Revis there… ouch! That gives me the willies… didn’t like the pick, but had a friend who was a HUGE Ginn fan and said it would be great! Sorry for the late publish… Jimmy Bourbon has a system here where I need to approve new posters… sorry, brother.