How Much Will “Soft Balls” Cost Patriots?

The Patriots “Soft Balls” scandal “appears” to have officially cost Tom Brady 4 games.

Will the “Soft Balls” scandal deflate the Pats 2016 season?

The knee-jerk answer in regards to will there be negative effects due to the “Soft Balls” scandal is: “no” for the division, and “yes” for the conference.

But, if you peel the onion a bit, you see that as far as the division goes,that quick no might not be the case.

Now, I’m not saying Pats are done, that there will be a new king of the AFC East, and it’s the Dolphins…

…Although, I’d love the “Rise Of the Miami Dolphins” to be true, these are the Patriots. If you haven’t heard, love em’ or hate em’, they win. And with three of the four games at home while Brady is out, they have a lot of ammunition with which to survive until he gets back.

Okay, first take a glance at the Pats season schedule here.

Those who love sports gambling would say that they have only three “easy” games when Brady returns: @ Browns, @ San Fran and L.A (Rams).

That leaves nine games in contested battles, five of which are away games: Seattle, Baltimore, @ Denver, @ Miami, @ Pittsburgh, @ New York, @ Buffalo and Cincinnati.

This puts great onus on the success of their first four games.

Game one is an away game against the Cardinals which will likely be a loss. Cardinals are a tough squad and Bruce Arians is one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the league. This is will end up being the Patriots toughest game of the season due to the conditions of facing an excellent team in an away game and with the loss of Brady. The Cardinals are abusive, and this game could begin the upending of Jimmy Garoppolo‘s confidence, if he isn’t careful.

Next, is Miami at home. We really don’t know enough about two crucial quantities: the 2016 Dolphins and the play of Garoppolo. What we do know is the Patriots are very tough at home and that pass rush is a crucial component in disrupting and beating a QB, especially an inexperienced one. This game will reveal more about the quality of Miami’s team than that of the Patriots. If they want a legitimate shot at the division, Miami needs to win this one given the lack of Brady. Unless Garoppolo shines, it should be a tight one.

Their third game is against the Texans. While it’s home, Wilfork, Clowney, Mercilus and Watt will present a tough challenge for Garoppolo with yet another team replete with pass rush. Texans offense is a big question mark, but the signing of Miller and Osweiler could signal times are changing for the perennially terrible “O”. Again, Garoppolo will face a more experienced QB and a fierce defense, and again it will likely be tight. At this point, Garoppolo will have gained his legs, standing tall as a QB with a big future or be one that is beaten into a shell.

The last game without Brady will be against the Bills. Tyrod Taylor and Rex will put Garoppolo in his fourth straight week with the same obstacles: pass rush and a more experienced QB.

Things will either be going swimmingly or in a nosedive in the face of the Pats “Soft Balls” set-back.

Garoppolo must be the balm to the Pats overcoming their “Soft Balls” problem.

Garoppolo is obviously the key. He will have to overcome four very difficult weeks and play over his head in order to make it above 2-2. To me, this is the likely scenario. By week 5, the Pats will likely be floating in a tie with the Bills and / or Miami – Jets first four games are brutal and will lucky if they win one of them.

Last season the Pats were 12-4 with an “easier” schedule and with 16 games of Brady. Normally, they are good for 12 wins. That won’t be the case this season as they will likely find themselves with 9-12 wins. This type of win count may still having them taking the division, but not the conference. But, their “Soft Balls” issue may very well put the Bills and Miami in striking distance at the end of the season to unseat the Patriots. The last month of Ravens, @ Broncos, Jets and @ Miami will be a tough gauntlet for the reigning division chumps…err, I mean champs to get through, if their start in too far off course. And that’s fine with me. Go Fins!!!