Odds of Success for the Dolphins 2015 Season
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This time of year sportsbooks begin to post their future odds for the upcoming NFL Season; such as odds to win each division, odds to win each conference, odds to win the Super Bowl, and over/under regular season wins. Based on odds to win, sportsbooks factor in that Miami has improved their roster from last season, but are still on the fringe of making the playoffs. Yet most sportsbooks are still giving the usual AFC contenders, such as the Patriots, Colts, Ravens and Broncos the odds on favorites to win their divisions and have a chance to play and win the Super Bowl.
To win the Super Bowl Acesportsbook.com has the Dolphins at +2300, which in layman terms means if you risk $100 on the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl, and they have a miracle season and win it all you would win $2300. Compared to the rest of the NFL there are 10 teams (Ravens, Bengals, Cowboys, Broncos, Packers, Colts, Patriots, Eagles, Steelers and Seahawks (Seahawks are the overall favorite at +400)) that have a better odds to win the Super Bowl, and 2 other teams that have the same odds as Miami. (Chiefs and Cardinals) Personally I think these odds should be a bit higher, more around +3000, the Dolphins have improved but I think we are still a season or two away from being legitimate Super Bowl contenders.
To win the AFC Conference Acesportsbook.com has the Dolphins at +950 which would have them tied for 7th best in the AFC Conference, which would in theory mean that Miami would not make the playoffs this season. Below is the top 9 teams in order of best odds to worst odds to win the AFC Championship. In addition these odds are basically saying that the Patriots, Colts and Broncos will run away with their respective divisions, and the Ravens will squeak out the AFC North, and the Steelers and Chargers will basically beat out the Dolphins for the two wild card spots, either with one more regular season victory, or even more likely they will finish with the same record and lose on a tie breaker.
Patriots +275
Colts +300
Broncos +450
Ravens +800
Steelers +850
Chargers +900
Dolphins +950
Bengals +950
Bills +1150
However another sportsbook Bovada.com has the Dolphins tied with 4 other teams with the 6th best odds to win the AFC Conference, and based on their regular season win totals they have the Dolphins and Bengals as the slight favorites over the Steelers, Bills and Chiefs to win 9 games and be the two wild card spots. (Based on win total odds they have the Bengals and Dolphins making the playoffs, but they believe if the Steelers were to make the playoffs ahead of these two teams, then the Steelers are better equipped to actually go further in the playoffs and possible win the AFC Championship.)
AFC Conference Regular Season Win Totals Over/Under
Colts +375 11 -115o/-115u
Patriots +400 10.5 -105o/-125u
Broncos +500 10 -125o/-105u
Steelers +1000 8.5 -130o/evenu
Ravens +1200 9 -115o/-115u
Dolphins +1600 8.5 -140o/+110u
Bengals +1600 8.5 -140o/+110u
Bills +1600 8.5 -130o/evenu
Chiefs +1600 8.5 -115o/-115u
Chargers +2200 8 -125o/-105u
Clearly the naysayers and pessimists will immediately point out that an over/under win total of 8.5 shows that the Dolphins in the eyes of the sportsbooks have not really improved that much, and are still an 8 to 9 win team. (Based on the odds of -140 for over 8.5 the favorite is clearly for the Dolphins to win at least 9 games.) However the Dolphins have closed the gap with a lot of their AFC competitors and should be in the thick of the playoff race for the entire season.
Lastly Bovada.com has the Dolphins still finishing second in the AFC East to the Patriots. This actually is a big difference from last year when the Patriots to start the season were -400 and the Dolphins were +750, so it is fair to say that the sportsbooks are giving the Dolphins some credit for closer the gap on the Patriots within the AFC East.
Patriots -150
Dolphins +400
Bills +425
Jets +750
Obviously these are only probable odds and some may be dead on the money, and others may not even be close, so only time will tell for us to see what the actual results are. Personally if I were a football gambling fan I would make two wagers on the phins this year; to win over 8.5 games and I would take a shot on the Phins to win the AFC east. What does the rest of the you fellas who pay close attention to Miami Dolphins news think about how the different sportsbooks are valuing the Dolphins chances of success for this upcoming season?
Come discuss this on our Forum!
The season will be deemed a success by loser Ross and Philbin if a miracle season of 9-7 happens.
My money is Fins are 8-8 or *9-7 (*assuming the stars are aligned).
Its not just the lack of talent in so many areas, its this HC. He will choke at critical decision times in big games. Settle for FG’s when we should go for it, and he will elect to go for it when we should be taking the points.
Sorry, Im just not a fan of Philbin. Nothing he has done proves anyone else should.
I agree with you on Philbin. Not so much on the talent, but definitely on Philbin – ohh lord let us be wrong though!! Please! Pretty, please!!!
Freak (Ireland), Can’t believe it, I actually agree with you on something. NO, its not the record, your off by a couple of wins (10-6, 11-5).
I do believe that Philbin needs to improve with his game calling situations. I thought Philbin took a huge step forward in player relations/communication (don’t under estimate that importance). Philbin has a very very good roster and the lights are on, just like the players, Philbin needs to pick it up a notch and show improvement in every area, especially in game crunching moments. He needs to figure out what practice/play/schedule adjustments are needed to keep this team from falling apart in December and to be playing their best football at that time.
We are at least (1 yr.) away from contending in the NFL. We need a better offensive line. and help on our defense IE, our linebackers…. We will fall short in our division to Buffalo!!
We have a better QB and offense than Buffalo. The amount of holes on this team are getting less and less each year
Jimmy, Totally agree, the difference between the 2 (Buffalo & Miami) is the offenses. Miami has put together a defense that will be just as good as Buffalo’s. The offenses ability to move the chains, score will be the difference. Edge Miami
Yes our defense got better and will be just as good or even better than Buffalo, and Tannehill is the second best QB in the AFC East by a wide margin, and now he has a group of WR’s that fit better with his skill set and personality