Vegas has given their odds on the Phins 2020 Season
Whether the NFL season starts on time or not, ‘Vegas’ has made its predictions for the outcomes of the 2020 Season. Sure, no one expects the Dolphins to contend for the Super Bowl, but there were some interesting movements in lines.
Shortly after the Super Bowl, the oddsmakers put up the odds for every NFL team to win the upcoming Super Bowl. To no surprise, the Chiefs, Ravens, and 49ers were at the top of the list as favored to win. Thebest bookie softwarehadMiami dead last on the list at +12,500. This means that if you wagered $100 on the Dolphins to win the upcoming Super Bowl you would get a $12,500 payout if this miracle happened.
That’s a huge longshot for the Phins to go all the way!
‘The money’ sees Miami as having had a successful Free Agency
But after the Dolphins spent a ton of money in Free Agency and filled some holes, their odds to win the Super Bowl have come down significantly to +8000. Again, this means that the same $100 wager on the Dolphins to win it all will now win $8,000. Lines makers have taken a very positive turn on the 2020 Dolphins because that’s quite a difference in the payout. And considering they stand to lose big if they evaluate teams wrong, this is a highly informed indication that the Phins are becoming a better team.
Yes, it’s still a longshot for them to win the Superbowl, but that’s a huge improvement of roughly 33%! And Miami hasn’t even used their ton of picks yet! What will Vegas say if the Phins draft well?
Vegas sees a solid improvement in win totals
Another line that saw the positive movement for the Dolphins was their regular-season win total over/under odds. The original line that opened for Miami’s over/under win total was over 5.5 games at -150. So the ‘favorite’ was that Miami had a good chance to win more than 5 games. However, now the odds have changed to over 6.5 games at -110 for the Dolphins wins this season. So, if you still want to bet on the Phins winning over the number of games, they’ll need to win 7 games. The risk of $110 to win $100 makes the bet cheaper but also harder.
The bump of one full game by the money men isn’t common considering the NFL only plays 16 Regular-Season games.
This shows that the lines makers see Miami as a much-improved team with their Free-Agent moves. Also, consider that Vegas pegged the Phins to win 4.5 games last year, that’s a near 50% improvement from last year. And again, the Phins still have the draft to bolster their squad. So, at the moment a good baseline for this season is 6-7+ wins.
Phins are moving up & the Pats are heading down
One other line to look at is the odds of who will win the AFC East. Now the big move on this didn’t come from the Dolphins but instead came from Tom Brady leaving the Patriots. So instead of New England being the usual big-time money line favorites to win the division, the Patriots dropped to -120 to win the East with the Bills being even money. That line has changed a little with the Bills and Patriots both being co-favorites to win the division at +110.
Unfortunately, the Dolphins odds haven’t moved and are the worst in the division at +1000. But, we’ll see if this changes after the draft.
I’m not saying the Dolphins are going to be world-beaters this year. However, every year there is a team that goes from last to first and first to last. With the Pats sans Brady and a solid draft from the Phins, maybe picking Miami to win the AFC East at +1000 offers a great bang for your buck?
I don’t know how it will all play out, but by all indications, the Dolphins are finally heading in the right direction. If the Phins can just nail this draft… anything is possible!
What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans’ thoughts of Miami’s chances next season?
This article reflects an accurate estimate of the Dolphin’s current status and upcoming season. If they manage the draft well they could exceed expectations on wins. By handle the draft well, I mean address starting lineup and depth weaknesses in positions other than quarterback. A good running back and a better offensive line will make us a viable NFC east offense. Taking any studs we can find available for the the front will really go along way towards earning a winning record. I still like the idea of trading down to gather lots of late first, second and third round picks.
The fact that the Patriots look weaker on paper only means that teams playing them early in the season may catch a break. By the end of the season, Belichick will have a very solid team looking toward the playoffs. It might be the wildcard but they will be in the hunt. The Bills could become the new “Big Dog in the Meat-house!” I don’t see any AFC – East team doing better than 11 & 5. The Dolphins could win all 8 home games and they could split with their AFC – EAST conference rivals with a good draft and no serious injuries.
Of course, this is all predicated on their being an NFL season. I don’t think the Corona virus pandemic will be abated nationally until late June. By this I mean no new deaths and no new cases. This does not mean that we will all be able to go to the stadium and cough on each other. Masks will be advised at first and optional for quite some time. Older fans just are not going to risk death to watch the Dolphins. The NFL might have to start the season with a TV only policy, if the players will go along with it? That’s a big if.
Once our nation has a vaccine that has been used long enough to build confidence in its ability to remove high risk, the fans will come back to the stadiums. That is not going to be any time soon. If we are lucky, the NFL playoffs might include fan attendance of games. Obviously, This isn’t a problem limited to football. The use of Hydroxychloroquine and various antibiotics as a prophylactic might get the players back on the field – let’s hope so!
“I still like the idea of trading down to gather lots of late first, second and third round picks.” I think they should with one of their three top picks. If Simmons falls to #5… I’d take him though. Another scenario is taking Simmons and moving up to get one of the Top Tackles. Still, the Phins have far better football minds than us. If they can identify a good tackle for the 26th pick that 18th pick could net them some nice picks. Israel found a treatment that gives 100% recovery. Along with the Hydroxy cocktail and good results from blood transfusions from the recovered patients to those who haven’t been exposed granting immunity this thing is going down soon. Add in the simple home test that the US has developed and we will move past this (hopefully) far sooner than later. The economy hit is the big hurdle… and then the geopolitical fallout as the world looks at China’s falling on giving accurate reports on the virus…
This article reflects an accurate estimate of the Dolphin’s current status and upcoming season. If they manage the draft well they could exceed expectations on wins. By handle the draft well, I mean address starting lineup and depth weaknesses in positions other than quarterback. A good running back and a better offensive line will make us a viable NFC east offense. Taking any studs we can find available for the the front will really go along way towards earning a winning record. I still like the idea of trading down to gather lots of late first, second and third round picks.
The fact that the Patriots look weaker on paper only means that teams playing them early in the season may catch a break. By the end of the season, Belichick will have a very solid team looking toward the playoffs. It might be the wildcard but they will be in the hunt. The Bills could become the new “Big Dog in the Meat-house!” I don’t see any AFC – East team doing better than 11 & 5. The Dolphins could win all 8 home games and they could split with their AFC – EAST conference rivals with a good draft and no serious injuries.
Of course, this is all predicated on their being an NFL season. I don’t think the Corona virus pandemic will be abated nationally until late June. By this I mean no new deaths and no new cases. This does not mean that we will all be able to go to the stadium and cough on each other. Masks will be advised at first and optional for quite some time. Older fans just are not going to risk death to watch the Dolphins. The NFL might have to start the season with a TV only policy, if the players will go along with it? That’s a big if.
Once our nation has a vaccine that has been used long enough to build confidence in its ability to remove high risk, the fans will come back to the stadiums. That is not going to be any time soon. If we are lucky, the NFL playoffs might include fan attendance of games. Obviously, This isn’t a problem limited to football. The use of Hydroxychloroquine and various antibiotics as a prophylactic might get the players back on the field – let’s hope so!
Everyone be well and prosper!
“I still like the idea of trading down to gather lots of late first, second and third round picks.” I think they should with one of their three top picks. If Simmons falls to #5… I’d take him though. Another scenario is taking Simmons and moving up to get one of the Top Tackles. Still, the Phins have far better football minds than us. If they can identify a good tackle for the 26th pick that 18th pick could net them some nice picks. Israel found a treatment that gives 100% recovery. Along with the Hydroxy cocktail and good results from blood transfusions from the recovered patients to those who haven’t been exposed granting immunity this thing is going down soon. Add in the simple home test that the US has developed and we will move past this (hopefully) far sooner than later. The economy hit is the big hurdle… and then the geopolitical fallout as the world looks at China’s falling on giving accurate reports on the virus…
Van, they are historical times…