How Good Is Tua… Really?

If the tank talk is correct, Tua is the Phins target

There’s no mystery how the Miami Dolphins 2019 Season will go. The Phins are a ‘bottom of the barrel’ team who are setting themselves up to draft one of the top QB’s in the 2020 draft. Tua Tagovailoa is currently at the head of the class.

Yes, other college QBs such as Justin Herbert, Jake Fromm, Jacob Eason, and others could make a case for themselves as the college season progresses. But, ‘Tanking for Tua’ seems the most likely outcome.

Miami has competition for Tua

However, as bad as Miami has been so far, there are five other teams that have yet to win a game this season. The Jets, Bengals, Broncos, Redskins, and Cardinals (who have a tie on their record) are all winless just like the Dolphins.

The Jets, Broncos, Redskins, and Cardinals all used high draft picks in 2019 to select a QB, so they aren’t suitors. Only the Bengals pose a serious threat to draft Tua. But, these other teams that ‘don’t need a QB’, they can still sink the Phins ‘Tank for Tua’ with a trade back to another team looking for a young signal-caller.

Regardless of how it turns out the best pay per head software is betting Miami will be in a position to get one of the top QBs. But, unless Miami goes 0-16, they are in serious jeopardy to lose out on Tua.

Is Tua Worth the Tank?

As gaudy as Tua’s stats have been in college, it’s important to remember that he is playing on one of the most talented teams in college football. Some might say Alabama has more talent than Miami. Alabama is projected to have as many as 7 players get drafted in the 1st Round alone. If this does happen it will break the all-time record of 6 players drafted in the 1st Round from one school. 

That’s a ton of talent for a QB to be surrounded by.

At receiver alone, Alabama has three pass catchers in Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, and DeVonta Smith with the potential to be a number 1 wide receiver in the NFL.

Tua won’t have that luxury in South Florida.

I watched the Alabama game this past weekend, and Tua did look good. He moved well in the pocket, felt the pressure, reacted quickly, and threw some nice balls. Tua put up video game type stats going 26 out of 36 for 418 yards and 6 touchdowns. On the downside, he was also off target on a few easy throws.  

How much does the talent around Tua help him?

However, if anyone watched this game, they would know the real star of the game was WR DeVonta Smith. Smith scored touchdowns every which way on his 11 catch, 274 yards, and 5 touchdowns day. Three of the scores were special. There was a 74-yard T.D., another he was knocked off balance but stayed in bounds and scored, and one where Smith played Superman and out jumped a player for the touchdown.  

No offense to Tua, but this wide receiver group certainly pad his stat line.

Yes, Miami will be loaded with draft picks and money to spend in Free Agency. So there’s that. But Tua has been part of the Alabama winning culture for the last couple of years, we don’t know how Tua will fare without top talent around him. Of course, there is also the question of is he even willing to sign to a team that brings as much adversity as the Dolphins? Could he pull and Eli Manning and refuses to play for Miami? That would be an epic insult and disaster for the Phins?

Picking a QB is a tricky thing

All this isn’t to say Miami should or shouldn’t draft Tua. I do like the kid. Rather, it’s to say ‘Tanking for Tua’ isn’t a guaranteed road to a Super Bowl. Fans and this regime can’t fixate on just one plan. Nothing is guaranteed.

There’s no ‘can’t miss college QB prospect’. Tua could be elite… or not. This is why going all-in on ‘Tanking for Tua’ is a very risky path. Both the fans and the regime need to prepare for plenty of monkey wrenches along the way.

Let’s hope they know what they are doing…

… or it might take another tank job in 2020 Season to get it right.

What are the rest of the Miami Dolphins news fans thoughts about Tua?


 

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24 comments

  • Steve

    Hello Dol-Fans

    Just to remind myself selecting a Supper Bowl QB for instant John El Way traded for Payton Manning got a Supper Bowl Win and is not afraid to draft and used free agency until he get another hit.

    Winning Super Bowl quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round 55.3 percent of the time (29.8 percent with the first overall pick). Of the 45 quarterbacks taken in the traditional NFL draft, the average selection spot is 54.9.

    Draft Position

    • The lowest-drafted quarterback to win a Super Bowl was Buccaneers QB Brad Johnson (227th overall by Vikings in 1992, ninth round).

    • Two Super Bowl winning quarterbacks were not drafted in the conventional NFL draft; 49ers QB Steve Young (XXIX) and Rams QB Kurt Warner (XXXIV).

    • The Steelers have drafted quarterbacks that have combined to win eight of the 47 Super Bowls; Chiefs’ Len Dawson (1), Colts’ Johnny Unitas (1), Terry Bradshaw (4) and Ben Roethlisberger (2).

    Playing Experience

    • A rookie quarterback has never led a team to a Super Bowl win.

  • Steve

    Van

    I really believed this process will take two or three years to accomplished.
    2019–Tanking season
    2020–Training draft picks and free agents.(Josh Rosen is the starting QB the next few years or longer)
    2021–Learning how to closed out with a win, the good teams still cannot closed a game. (At 44 years old Brady most likely retired by now)
    2022- Brian Flores feeling the heat???? or being complimented????
    2023–Brian Flores or another coach?

  • Steve

    Josh Rosen if he does well staying alive this season on the field. He would earn a keeper until someone beats him out.

    Draft without drafting Tua? there’s a possibility the fins may not have the number one picked which means the fins would have to draft another player:

    Going after the best player on the board.

    EACH PLAYER RANKS NUMBER ONE AT POSITION: Two of these players require a double team.
    1st round: Chase young Edge
    1st round: Derrick Brown DL Auburn
    1st Round: Isaiah Simmons, Clemson is the Best all around and Moses is the Best run stopper.
    Dylan Moses LB Bama

    OPTION: Gives the Best pass and run defender,Top receiver and Top running Back in the 2019 college World.
    Chase Young Edge (1)
    Jerry Jeudy WR (1)
    Johnathan Taylor RB (1)

    Second round:
    Jalen Hurst QB Alabama/Oklahoma Most mobile and good passer.
    Tommy Kraemer Offensive Guard Notre Dame Best Run-Blocker: Tommy Kraemer, Notre Dame Most NFL Ready

    Option:
    Lucas Niang TCU Offensive Tackle
    Joe Burrow QB LSU

    3rd Round:
    Alaric Jackson, Iowa OT
    J.K. Dobbins RB Ohio State

    Top CB the needs to draft.

    CB Jeffrey Okudah| Ohio State is the complete Corner Back.
    CB Bryce Hall Virginia
    CB Kristian Fulton LSU
    CB Paulson Adebo Stanford
    CB Essang Bassey Wake Forest
    CB CJ Henderson Florida

    All are possible choices?

  • Steve

    Currently these Quarterbacks are the best Quarterbacks or lead the college conference they play in. But
    the NFL will passed on most of these QB’s base on their system etc.

    1. Justin Fields best QB in the Big Ten https://youtu.be/Z6sLwdc5XfQ
    2. Mason Fine Conference USA https://youtu.be/7lmq6YVeTSM
    3. Zac Thomas QB in the Sunbelt Conference https://youtu.be/Dl47mn2U4p8
    4. PAC 12 Justin Herbert Oregon https://youtu.be/wmcWHkjHinI
    5. Mountain West Cole McDonald Hawaii https://youtu.be/zADj0k0waFY
    6. SEC Tua Tagovailoa Alabama https://youtu.be/nzZV3AOoNG8
    7. MAC Nathan Rourke https://youtu.be/Um2oal9-XC4
    8. USA Conference D’ERIQ KING Houston https://youtu.be/7ZUS9f6ut30
    9. Big 12 Sam Ehlinger Texas https://youtu.be/xAaSz3G6IOE;Projected Round (2020): 3-5.
    10. ACC Trevor Lawrence Clemson https://youtu.be/DjZsr9xtweI

  • Steve

    Currently 2020 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings

    1. Tua Tagovailoa Alabama JR 6’1 218

    2. Justin Herbert Oregon SR 6’6 233

    3. Jordan Love Utah State rJR 6’4 220

    4. Jacob Eason Washington rJR 6’6 228

    5. Mason Fine North Texas SR 5’11 187

    6. Jake Fromm Georgia JR 6’2 220

    7. Nate Stanley Iowa SR 6’4 243

    8. Bryce Perkins Virginia SR 6’3 215

    9. Feleipe Franks Florida rJR 6’6 240

    10. Joe Burrow LSU SR 6’4 216

    11. Cole McDonald Hawaii rJR 6’4 220

    12. Kellen Mond Texas A&M JR 6’2 217

    13. KJ Costello Stanford SR 6’5 215

    14. Jake Bentley South Carolina SR 6’4 220

    15. Brian Lewerke Michigan State SR 6’3 215

    16. Shea Patterson Michigan SR 6’2 203

    17. Steven Montez Colorado SR 6’5 230

    18. Jalen Hurts Oklahoma SR 6’2 218

    19. D’Eriq King Houston SR 5’11 195

    20. Mackenzie Milton Central Florida JR 5’11 185

    21. Riley Neal Vanderbilt SR 6’6 225

    22. Sam Ehlinger Texas JR 6’3 230

    NFL ORDER DIFFER FROM THOSE QB’S LEADING THEIR DIVISION.

    What does all of this mean is no one really knows how well these QB’s will performed in the NFL? The NFL
    teams who can provide the proper system for their Drafted QB’s will succeed. And those NFL teams looking for
    a supper man QB will fail.

    • admin

      Joe Burrow has some shine in my eyes.

    • admin

      That kid on the jags looks like a real nice find late…

      • Steve

        He played college football at East Carolina, before transferring to Washington State, and was drafted by the Jaguars in the sixth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. We discussed Garner Menshew being a late rounder etc. Does not surprise me at all he has the gift of selling himself and when your number is called you must answer.

        Steve
        February 23, 2019 at 3:10 am
        Admin

        The Heisman Candidates list is a great placed and tool to used when searching for those Blue Chip players.

        Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray won the 2018 Heisman Trophy, beating out Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins from an all-QBs trio of finalists at Saturday’s ceremony in New York.
        Tagovailoa and Murray had put together one of the most compelling Heisman races ever. Entering their meeting in the Playoff’s Orange Bowl semifinal, Murray has the best season passer rating in FBS history, and Tagovailoa has the second-best. They’ve been so good that Haskins, who’s played like a Heisman winner, wasn’t a serious candidate to win.
        Here’s the complete top-10 tally, as released by auditor Deloitte:
        Kyler Murray: 2,167 total points: 517 first-place votes, 278 second-place, 60 third-place
        Tua Tagovailoa: 1,871 total points: 299, 431, 112
        Dwayne Haskins: 783 total points: 46, 111, 423
        Will Grier: 126 total points: 4, 17, 80 ( Strong 3rd rounder)
        Gardner Minshew: 122 total points: 6, 15, 74 (Strong 5th rounder)
        McKenzie Milton: 39 total points: 4, 4, 19 (Central Florida’s QB suffered a serious season ending injury)
        Travis Etienne: 29 total points: 0, 6, 17
        Quinnen Williams: 27 total points: 1, 4, 16
        Jonathan Taylor: 26 total points: 1, 2, 19 (2020 draft)
        Darrell Henderson: 21 total points: 0, 3, 15
        Tagovailoa had the most points ever for a runner up, ESPN said.

        Steve
        February 23, 2019 at 2:51 am

        Admin very nice Article!

        There are two blue chip players in the 2019 draft and some teams will panic drafting Quarterbacks in the 1st round that should not be in the 1st round. Too many Quarterbacks are drafted in the 1st round and after a few years the team cannot get a 4th round pick for the player.

        (Kyler Murray 1st rounder Heisman winner) vs Tua Tagovailoa
        2018 Orange Bowl, #4 Oklahoma vs #1 Alabama (Highlights)
        https://youtu.be/Pxxllpct8OM

        Tua Tagovailoa 2020 draft 1st rounder vs Trever Laurence 2021 draft 1st rounder)
        Clemson vs Alabama Football 2019 National Championship Game Highlights
        https://youtu.be/3Bxu4j25lXQ

        Taylor Cornelius 5th or 7th rounder vs Drew Lock 2nd to 3rd rounder
        2018 Liberty Bowl #23 Missouri vs Oklahoma State Full Game Highlights
        https://youtu.be/So79K6G6DLQ

        Justin Herbert 2020 draft 1st rounder Oregon squeaks past Michigan State in Redbox Bowl with lone touchdown from Justin…
        https://youtu.be/iRE5yf5PQQU

        Gardner Minshew 3rd to 7th rounder Washington State vs Iowa State Football Highlights
        https://youtu.be/3va47fmZn-wvs

        Dwayne Haskins 1st rounder vs Jake Browning 6th to 7th rounder
        2019 Rose Bowl #9 Washington vs #6 Ohio State Full Game Highlights
        https://youtu.be/xTJ6Az58Cpc

    • admin

      Love looked terrible this week… was liking him, but kind not as high now.

  • Steve

    Currently these are the top college quarterbacks in their division

    1. Justin Fields best QB in the Big Ten https://youtu.be/Z6sLwdc5XfQ
    2. Mason Fine Conference USA https://youtu.be/7lmq6YVeTSM
    3. Zac Thomas QB in the Sunbelt Conference https://youtu.be/Dl47mn2U4p8
    4. PAC 12 Justin Herbert Oregon https://youtu.be/wmcWHkjHinI
    5. Mountain West Cole McDonald Hawaii https://youtu.be/zADj0k0waFY
    6. SEC Tua Tagovailoa Alabama https://youtu.be/nzZV3AOoNG8
    7. MAC Nathan Rourke https://youtu.be/Um2oal9-XC4
    8. USA Conference D’ERIQ KING Houston https://youtu.be/7ZUS9f6ut30
    9. Big 12 Sam Ehlinger Texas https://youtu.be/xAaSz3G6IOE;Projected Round (2020): 3-5.
    10. ACC Trevor Lawrence Clemson https://youtu.be/DjZsr9xtweI

    • admin

      Starting to watch them Steve. Still worn out from being sick. I am starting to like Joe Burrow, though.

      • Steve

        Admin

        When time permits Burrow’s tape is below. Burrow’s is more of a day two or three picked. His stock will rise this season and may get 1st round consideration. The Dolphins if they have the number one picked. Focus must be to drafting A number one at that position not maybe two or three, utilizing all three 1st round selection on that sure number one position.

        Film Study on Burrow’s this week.
        https://youtu.be/iPICvb_IUMI

        Bowl Game against UCF 2018 This game shows the toughness,bounce back and handling pressure in the big game.
        https://youtu.be/N5gcwUDdzM8

        The Bottom line, on my board I have Jalen Hurst and Joe Burrow a Dolphins day two QB picked.

  • Steve

    Maybe one of your best Article yet!

    Most Fans understood this season meant sacrifices to get the best QB not the Best player in 2020.

    The Best player right now in my book would be Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State: An explosive first step off of the edge allows Young to get into the backfield quickly, he also can set the edge in the run game. He’s not Nick Bosa but he’s the best edge rusher in the 2020 NFL Draft class. I would be afraid to draft a receiver as the 1st picked since many of them have some type mental issue don’t know of any off field issues about Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama? But Micheal Irving was a 1st rounder?

    How good is Tua? We all know how good Tua is.
    The question is how good will Miami be with Tua?
    The Dolphins are asking a Champion to come play substandard ball for them, when I.E they cannot guarantee adequate blocking for him or cannot guarantee NFL receivers nor a defense and the coaching is yet to be seen.

    For me I would not draft Tua but for the Dolphins (They need to stop the foolishness and draft Tua and a second
    Quarterback in 2020). Now less be real if the plan is not to placed a line in front of tua then he’s only going to get hurt.

  • brad

    very well put, all these moron fans and beat writers tank for Tua!! t shows our ignorance as a fan base.. It is sad actually. He plays on an all pro roster/ coached team. put him on Orgeon, Syracuse, North Carolina, Miami, Florida, are we all banging the table for him then? I think not.. keeping it real

    • admin

      Hey, Brad… for some reason my replies didn’t stick… replied and they disappeared. I’m liking Joe Burrow ATM. I don’t know what he’ll be on the pro level. I am skeptical about tanking for him. We have Rosen who looks to be avg to slightly above avg at the least. I would hurt the regime to spend that high of a pick to get a similiar level players. Maybe Tua is better… maybe Rosen is. But for the #1 overall, they had better nail it. To your point, adversity reveals the core of a person. Tua didn’t rise in his big game last year. We’ll see him in a big game again this year… I, like you and Jimmy, aren’t sold on Tua, but I am watching.

  • Van E Hamlin

    I have watched Tua. He puts too much air under his Deep passes. The Dolphins have no way of protecting him and a below average receiver “corpse.”
    Next year should be a trade down year to gain picks. Select o-line and a receiver or two. We will still suck, so you can draft Lawrence in the following draft.

    • admin

      Hey, Brad… for some reason my replies didn’t stick… replied and they disappeared. “Next year should be a trade down year to gain picks.” YUP!… unless Tua is elite. I lean towards not… but evaluating college QBs ISN’T a strength of mine. I do like Joe Burrow ATM. I want Phins to draft a QB next year, but he doesn’t need to come in RD 1. Look at that JAG QB taken late… kid looks like he has some magic. Rosen does buy some time and allows Miami to be patient. We do need linemen for sure!… and corners, safety, linebackers, D-end, and maybe a Tight End.