Most Top Draft QBs Are Fools Gold

All QBs that shine in the Draft rarely end up golden on gameday


Phins Fans draft dream is Marino 2.0, but few rookie QBs will even become quality starters

Everyone and their mother has been talking about the depth of high-end Quarterback talent in this draftFour QB’s: Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield all could be drafted within the Top 10 picks of the first round. This would be a unique event in the history of the NFL Draft. More than likely this will end up just predraft hype.

Each of these top tier QB’s has their warts and red flags. It will be interesting to see how many of these young men can actually live up to the hype. It will also be interesting to see how many regimes will die because of their poor evaluation.

Most pay per head sites are predicting that Sam Darnold will be the first QB selected in the Draft. But Darnold has turned the ball over more than each of the other 3 prospects. Last season Darnold threw 13 interceptions with a whopping 11 fumbles, which was second worst of all NCAA. His turnover problems scream that he could have a rough welcome to the NFL.

Most fans are happy to draft a QB… until they bomb on gameday

Josh Rosen has the best mechanics of each of these prospects. However, durability is his big red flag. Rosen has already suffered two concussions at UCLA because he stands tall and delivers the pass in the face of the rush. NFL QBs get smacked around pretty good, so unless he learns to better avoid hits, he’ll suffer more concussions. Also, there are concerns about his leadership ability to rally the players around him.

Josh Allen has continued to improve his stock over the course of this offseason. He has by far the biggest arm of all the prospects. However, he played against much weaker competition in college than any of these other prospects. Wyoming is in the weak Mountain West Conference, and despite this, he had pedestrian statistics. In 2017 Allen threw for only 1812 yards with an average of 6.7 yards per play, 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Those are not the type of dominating numbers one would expect from a top-tier, NFL-worthy QB in a subpar Conference. If that’s the best he can do in a weak College Conference, then what can we truly expect from him in the NFL?

The draft could be a BIG HIT or BIG MISS if they pick a QB in the 1st Round

The last of the ‘top QBs’ is Baker Mayfield who is the most accomplished of each of these QB’s. Mayfield won the Heisman and led his team to the College Playoff 2 out of his last 3 seasons. The biggest knock on him is that he is a bit undersized for an NFL QB. It’s a legit concern as his statue will force him to rely too heavily on throwing lanes to complete his passes. Also, like Rosen, there are some concerns about his character. Many analysts worry he could be more Johnny Manziel than Drew Brees.

Miami drafting a QB gives me the ‘willies’

Even though these QBs are expected to be selected early, there’s no definite home run among them. The most likely scenario will be that in three years we’ll all be laughing about how overrated they were. So there’s no way in hell Miami should go all in a trade up. It would feel good for a little while, but if the QB pick ends up a miss, it will be years before Miami recovers. 

Also, part of me hopes the Dolphins brass won’t even get tempted with one of these Qbs at #11. The best-case scenario for Miami could be that Darnold, Rosen, Allen, and Mayfield all go in the Top 10. My trust level for this FO isn’t sky high, so a near idiot proof selection with one of the non-QB top talents might be the safest and best road going forward. Go Phins!!!


 

9 comments

  • Steve

    Josh Rosen Vs Nic Nic Shimonek nubmer pick vs late picked?

    UCLA vs Kansas State Football Highlights
    https://youtu.be/_FGDI6KW27k

    Kansas State vs Texas Tech Football Highlights
    https://youtu.be/H1Mjn9wQQ6I

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    Highlights: UCLA football stuns Texas A&M with 34-point comeback
    https://youtu.be/apvbISrC3JI

    Highlights – Texas Tech rallies to beat Texas in Austin (not Texas A&M I know)
    https://youtu.be/Jkq1gCUT27M

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    Josh Rosen (UCLA QB) vs Arizona State – 2017
    https://youtu.be/B-fnrKt3sE4

    FB: 2017 Highlights vs. Arizona State
    https://youtu.be/dJRWvNvzs8s

  • Steve

    I think with Ryan Tannehill, Nic Shimonek and Austin Allen would be the start of a new culture not with the team But with the Quarterback culture.

    Allen and Nic were the only two QB too stand out in the East and West Shrine game. We can get Allen in the undrafted free agency part.

    The top 10 returning SEC players
    BY GORDON MCGUINNESS • FEB 14, 2017

    ARKANSAS QB AUSTIN ALLEN
    The only quarterback on this list, Allen surprised a lot of people by stepping in and taking over as the team’s starting quarterback with ease last year. He stood out in particular throwing the ball downfield, throwing eight touchdowns to one interception on throws travelling at least 20 yards downfield. One key thing he’ll have to work on in 2017 is improving under pressure. In 2016, his completion percentage dropped from 72.8 percent when kept clean, to 44.1 percent when pressure got to him.

    Allen can carry his weight.
    https://youtu.be/EHKTna3VadE

    I believed that Nic and Allen both possess those intangibles we have lacked at that position. We cannot continue to bring in non productive veteran QB’s.

  • Steve

    Had to post this performance:

    https://youtu.be/MgYrtJ_pJOc

    Start Watch time on tape: 09:39:35 to 1:54:35
    NCAAF 2017 East West Shrine Game 20 01 2018 East vs West

    • admin

      Cool thanks… wife is grabbing me some brews and I’m gonna’ some film watching tonight… I’ll use this as my warm up…thanks!!!

    • Dunner

      Wow Steve. I was going to post info about a sleeper QB that I feel may end up in Miami or should, Guess who that QB is, you got it – Nic Shimonek. Must be the first name (mine is Steve also). Shimonek is a sleeper that is flying under the radar. He should be there in the forth round for Miami, though I may try to trade up as far as possible in the forth round to ensure a chance to draft him. He is as green as they come, he only started 1 year (last season). He could be a perfect fit w/Gase. Outside a QB in the first round, I am hoping for White or Shimonek.

      • Steve

        Yes Dunner!

        Nic Shimonek has my vote. I hope he’s in the Dolphins line up this season. In the Patriot’s media he was mentioned.

        By the End of the 2017 Season Nic was rated A 7th rounder to undrafted free agent during this 2018 draft. His stock has moved up, I think A 4th rounder would be a Reached! But A Reached well worth it.

        I’m not sold on any of the top Quarterback in this Draft. Just not feeling it!.

        I like Shimonek FIELD PRESENTS, Nic HANDLE’s the ADVERSITY and take charge of the game quite well.

        https://youtu.be/jrwTxCFsxDg What Nic Shimonek Said to Keep Texas Tech Going After Patrick Mahomes’ Injury

        https://youtu.be/PBv_3ETK5Dk VS TEXAS TECH NO HUDDLE 2017
        https://youtu.be/AmCRqf-cdeY Texas vs Texas Tech | Highlights | FOX COLLEGE FOOTBALL
        https://youtu.be/qeMLKVzNp9A Iowa State vs Texas Tech Football Highlights
        https://youtu.be/852b_c7as_Y Texas Tech vs West Virginia Football Highlights 2017 Week 7
        https://youtu.be/VW8LDrc9VnM Texas Tech at Kansas Football Highlights

        https://youtu.be/G2VpkXR2IC0A Game to Remember: Texas Tech Upsets Texas

        https://youtu.be/H1Mjn9wQQ6I Kansas State vs Texas Tech Football Highlights

        • admin

          Put this response in the wrong thread… “ahhh your man is in it… watching him… love how clear the sound on the field is and no announcers…” It wasn’t a good showing for him, but I’ll look at others… Of course, as I said college QBs are my weakness.

        • admin

          Gonna check those links through the day…