Big Decisions: To Sign Or Not To Sign Stills
Making the right choices in some big decisions is the only way Miami will have a successful 2017
Big decisions are coming for Miami.
The Miami Dolphins had a surprisingly good 2016 season, but there is no guarantees for 2017, unless Mike Tannenbaum and Co. make all the right moves on some big decisions.
The Dolphins Receiving Core came into the season as one of the strengths of the team, and most pay per head bookie service fans would agree that they lived up to the billing. Even though the group consists three others (Leonte Carroo, Jakeem Grant, and Rashawn Scott) beyond the ‘big three’, the truth is, it was really all about Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills.
Looking over the roster:
Landry, the alpha dog of the group, was able to catch 94 passes for 1,136 yards and 4 touchdowns. The reception number and yards were slightly less then what he accumulated in his 2015 season, but his yards per catch rose from 10.5 to 12.1 in Adam Gase’s offense. Landry is a superstar and the heart and soul of the team.
They should / will / must extend his deal A.S.A.P, if not sooner — no question about it.
Stills benefited the most from Coach Gase’s arrival. In New Orleans Stills was a deep threat option, but in 2015, Joe Philbin and Dan Campbell couldn’t figure out a way to utilize Stills’ unique skill set. However, Gase was a big fan of Stills from the start of OTA’s, and he was able to find creative ways to incorporate Stills into the Offense. Stills was able to catch 42 passes for 726 yards with a team leading 9 touchdowns. In addition, he was able to average a whooping 17.3 yards per catch, which was the third best yards per catch average in the entire NFL.
As a Free Agent, Stills will likely command a bit more than the Rishard Matthews deal in the range of $5 to $6 million dollar a year contract to lock him up — but, will some team offer to overpay him?
The receiving core strength was big dose of Landry and Stills with a sprinkle of Parker.
Parker was able to battle through some early season injuries by learning how to be more of a ‘pro’ — like drinking water and eating breakfast: oy vey! The dividends were increased results from his rookie year. He more than doubled his reception total from the 2015 season, by catching 56 passes in 2016, which also led to a big increase in his yardage with 744 receiving yards. He also added 4 touchdowns, and had a yards per catch average of 13.3, which was well below his 19.0 yards per catch average, but considering he caught 30 more passes than the previous season, this number was bound to go down. While Parker is still on his Rookie contract…
…he will likely command a big contract by the end of 2018, if his current trajectory continues.
So can three big contracts be handed out to the receiving core, which will likely be in the range of 26-30 mill per season, not to mention the other two or three receivers needed to fill the core?
Adding to the complexity of this big decision is the multiple picks spent on Carroo, who will be a Free Agent a year after Parker.
Landry is a Superstar.
Parker posses freakish talent.
Still stretches the field and produces.
Carroo is an unknown quantity, but a big purchase.
It’s a big decision on whether to invest in Kenny Still or not to.
With only so much money to go around, the need for a successful 2017, health questions surrounding Parker, the investment in Carroo, huge holes elsewhere, and the fact that Landry and Stills have the best chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, the signing of Stills is a complex matter.
Then you wonder what if Stills gets swept up in a contract bidding war from another team: who will stretch the field in 2017 if he is lost?
The Transition Tags not what they used to be, and the Franchise Tag is an absurd proposition. Neither are worthwhile options.
So, I think it’s clear, if it takes a reasonable contract to keep — do it. They can front load it, so that 2 years down the road, if Carroo pans out, or another player fills his role, they can get out of it.
But, it will get very sticky if his contract gets into the 7+ range in the buying frenzy of Free Agency. While Gase might be able to scheme around his loss, their is also a chance he won’t.
This will be a big decision and it’s approaching fast as the first stage of the FA period begins March 7th. This though will be one of many big decisions for Miami. Go Fins!!!
I like the article about Stills/Alonzo. I feel that they will sign Stills though. If he is seeking 7-8 million/year so be it. I believe the plans are to cut Cameron and his 7.5 million dollar salary. So there you go, designate Cameron’s salary to Stills and draft a TE (while re-signing Sims also). This year TE draft class is the deepest it has been many years. Plus, as Lemmus mentioned, inevitably it will be up to Stills, and I believe that Stills likes South Fla., likes his teammates, likes this staff, especially Gase, making a re-sign a pretty good possibility.
If Miami hits on 70% of its FA’s and Draftees, look out, they will be competing for the division title. Even if they status quo and get their injured players back they will be again battling for a wild card spot. The schedule is challenging, a lot depends on when the bye is, when do they play in the North East, when do they travel to K.C./Baltimore? Going into last season we had one of the toughest schedules prior to the start of the season. Looks to be similar for ’17. Much depends on the dates, and of coarse you can never predict injuries. Look forward to March to let the process begin. SO different from the past 8 years.
I’d say Miami needs 2 FA starters and 3 starters in the Draft. So, they have 6 picks if they get 2 from compensatory picks, and figure they’ll get 2 big FA’s, so 5 out of 8 they need to hit on. I don’t count on smaller contracts or all the other small pick ups, just the big stuff. Now, if some of the small stuff hits big then they could lose on more in the big category…except the FA’s as that will hurt the cap. But, their 1-2 must be starters and one more. They need 2 Lb’s, 2 DE’s, 1 DT, 2 OL, and could use 1 cb and TE. So, we’ll see. But, far less injured guys and projects this time around.
Agree Admin, If we hit on 3 starting Draftee’s, look out. It is hard to name 5 starting positions on this team right now. Of coarse that is expecting the injured players are all back and healthy. Dire need = 2 LBers, 2 guards, outside of those, the rest are luxury, and I think at least one of each will be had via free agency.
…it will be up to Stills
…he came from a poor situation where he didn’t click with a franchise QB who bad mouthed him
…Miami will pay him to stay, but won’t overpay …he knows what is happening here, the prospects for more, and he apparently clicks with TH and Gase
…he’s young and the money will be a big draw …but this is a team on the rise where he knows he fits …how much that buys Miami will be the question ….que sera, sera
Do you think the front office will try to get a deal done with Stills before he hits the open market? Or will they let him test the market?
In years past we let our worthy FAs test the market and we get outbid for their services ie Lamar Miller and Rishard Matthews. Sometimes, in hindsight, those decisions turn out good but not always the case.
Your thoughts!
It’s up to him,,,I’d suppose he’ll likely have more leverage now that ever, so he’ll want to test the open market. Also, the Dolphins could hit him with a big offer and he might take it, but I doubt they’ll do that. But, that is just a hunch…no evidence to support it.
Here is a report that says they will let him hit the open market….not written in stone of course:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2686820-2017-nfl-free-agents-latest-rumors-and-predictions-ahead-of-divisional-round
In my opnion, it takes a receiver not named Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckam Jr three years to learn and execute really well.
Having said that, the right coaching can tease it out in year 2 and 3. Okay, Stills blossomed in year 3 mainly because he was coached and used right. So, couple things I am considering: Re-sign Stills for the top end speed and for the chemistry.
How much it will take is up to the experts on that subject but I would keep him at 5-6 per year with 10 guaranteed and in such a way that you could part ways after 3 years if needed. That way, by the time Parker comes due, there will be cap room for him. The Dolphins must extend Landry now or else the price will go up astronomically next year. We need to start keeping our own developed talents rather than keep churning the roster.
As far as Caroo is concerned, I think we overpayed (in terms of draft picks) for him. He may develop into a replacement for one of the three but as of now the jury is still out.
So, I hope this administration spends some cap money on keeping the handful of our own players ie Stills, Dion Sims, Landry, Reshad Jones that are forming the core. Spend wisely in free agency. Restructure some contracts where feasible and draft wisely.
Last point I’ll make. We have something good happening for a change, Some FA may come for a little less just to have a shot at a ring and some of our own may stay for a little less just to remain a part of what is going on here. Go Dolphins!
I like this line, “In my opinion, it takes a receiver not named Jarvis Landry or Odell Beckam Jr three years to learn and execute really well”. Very true, and I agree with all your points…now, it gets a bit sticky if Stills is a hot commodity in FA — if he starts to creep up into the 7-9 range. It’s easy to say goodbye until games start and no one is stretching the field. Maybe Parker could fill that role … and here’s an ugly one, what if Belli want to stick it to us and pull Stills in his direction…maybe to make us over pay or simply because he sees him being that good. Not saying that will happen — at this point it’s just ‘wargaming’ to talk Dolphins football. This though among many will be a big decision. I see Miami having to nail at least 60-70% of their moves to have a good 2017 due the how the tough the schedule appears at the moment — just a ball park figure.