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Why The Dolphins Will Win In London

Why The Dolphins Will Win In London

Dolphins win against the Saints because their Offensive line will win in the trenches

Dolphins will win in London because their Offensive line will win in the trenches

A win will come from the equal parts of Fin’s talent and Saints lack thereof

It might sound crazy to say after last week, but the Miami Dolphins will win this Sunday because their Offensive Line will win fairly handily against the Saints Defensive Line.

Yeah, the Jets D-Front– and some squirrel calls by Adam Gase–had the Dolphins Offensive Line victimized, but this week it will be quite a different story.

Why? Well first, the Saints are ranked 23rd in the league in rush defense, giving up 126.7 yards per game with a 4.6 YPC. The fact that the Saints only gave up 3 twenty+ yard gains means they are giving it up consistently like a two-dollar crack ho on a drug binge.

Now consider the Jets, they rank behind the Saints at 26th, but they gave up 5 twenty+ yard runs with 2  forty+ yard runs. Take away those runs and their 400 yards given up is nearly cut in half. In the proper context, Jets are substantially better statistically than the Saints and that’s not digging into the talent level difference between the two Defensive Lines–but don’t worry, I will.

Remember the formula for success is your team’s talent verse the talent of the team you’re playing… of course, then there are the ingredients of match ups and play calls to complete the flavor of the brew.

But before we continue on with the run game, let’s hit the Saints passing defense like a drive by: Saints are ranked 29th in pass defense and have given up 19 twenty+ yard receptions. They are tied for second worst in chunk yards surrendered. Let that sink in for a bit.

Dolphins need a win in the biggest way this week

I can’t predict Gase’s game plan or the calls, so that’s a rather large variable, especially given the ‘head scratcheres’ last Sunday. But I can talk about the match ups:

The Jets have two of the best interior line men in the game, and if you include their NT, all three have power in spades. Muhammed WilkersonSteve McLendon, and Leonard Williams could be argued as the best interior 3-4 in the NFL. The Saints aren’t even in shouting distance of that.

 

 

The Dolphins Interior OL struggles with power, especially Mike Pouncey and Anthony Steen. For Pouncey it’s about his hips… he hasn’t likely done heavy squats in years. From a physical talent standpoint, he’s slightly above average at this point in his career. But his excellent height of 6’5”, savviness, and experience make him what he is. For Steen, his issues with power appears to be a mix of technique and lack of natural strength. In the end, both lack the ability to deal with power.

Thankfully, just like the Chargers, the Saints don’t have much interior power. Both the Saints and Chargers prefer wider alignments, and speed and agility inside. This is a very good thing for the Dolphins. Look at the Chargers run defense stats: They are ranked 31st in run defense with 146 YPG. But context is the key as they faced the Broncos, Chiefs, and Dolphins. And, like the Jets, they have surrendered a number of big gains on the ground with 4 twenty+ yards runs and 1 forty + yard run. The Chargers have made bigger mistakes and faced better rushing teams, longer extrapolation will likely see them as the better run defense than the Saints.

 

 

A Dolphins win will reset the season

The film below is EVERY play the Saints DL made last week, whether in run stop or pass rush. Given that the Panthers were in passing mode midway through the 2nd Qtr, this is pathetic. The one sack in the Red Zone was a total breakdown in coverage, so really the Saints had one D-Linemen make a play per quarter. The last play shows Ryan Khalil against the DL interior… this was pretty much replayed throughout the game. This is likely what will occur with Pouncey come game time.

 

 

The down side to tomorrows win is that we still won’t be able to gauge the Dolphins… other than they are doing what they should. Gase will still need to prove he has found the pulse of this team, specifically the capabilities of his O-Line in contrast to the talents of each weeks defensive abilities. But, if they somehow lose this week, then it won’t take a per head sportsbook to figure out that this season will likely end up a disaster.

Even though a loss will show more than a win, I’ll take the “W” with a giddy smile–please, please, pretty please!

Okay, in closing, I’m here to remind all you fans what you already know… the game of football is about the trenches. As goes the Offensive and Defensive Lines, so goes the game. Miami will win in the trenches–they’d darn well better. Go Fins!!!


 

 

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32 comments

  • Samson

    Worst of all is the pats look vulnerable this year. Although the bills look legit can they really keep it up… I don’t see a turnaround this year. Schedule is way harder… No bye week… Unless tunsil gets his shit together and Pouncey turns back the clock our o-line is gonna be at the bottom of the league… Gase has been the worst play caller in football to start the season. Gotta believe if he wasn’t the head coach he would have been fired… Cutler will probably have a couple games where he looks awesome but many more where he looks like he should have stayed in the booth… Our defense looks like it could be middle of the pack which is an improvement but if they are on the field all the time they will be wore down by mid season… Gase is to blame… He said our line would be good enough… I’ve lost all faith in him as a scout,, recruiter or whatever… With the way they seem to have no heart or pride im starting to lose faith in him as a HC also… He admitted he was wrong last year about the turnstile twins… Will he do the same this year and turn the play calling over? Don’t know if it matters… Could be the most disappointing season ever considering the hope coming in

  • phinfreak

    Some facts for the inmates:

    * Saints 347 yards against the Fins vaunted D
    * 22 first downs!
    * Time of possession 34:28 vs 25:32. Great D!
    * Total plays = 70 !!!!! Way to get off the field D!
    * Yards per play 5.0
    * Passing yards 261. Great!
    * 50% redzone conversion! wow! great D !

    C’mon man. Thats not a 3-0 D by any stretch of the imagination. Those are the facts. Lets hear yours.

    • admin

      Alright, I’ll give you one Stat in context… and see what comes of it. You see that’s the key: context and actually watching the game. I just don’t know how you can take some rough stats and come to a firm conclusion. Anyway, Dolphins received first and had roughly a 8-9 min drive. So, from the point the defense got on the field till the end of the game, when the TOP that actually mattered to the D was roughly 16 min to 34 min. I’m very interested in your response.

      • phinfreak

        Context? See the last 3 games for this D, and team as a whole. Then see last season. Thats the context. You cant microscope to draw a conclusion. You have to include the entire body of work.

        “,,this room is clea…”

  • phinfreak

    Remember I told you last week that by mid season Gase will be on the Hot Seat. I was wrong, it wont take that long.

  • phinfreak

    Well now…where are all the geniuses now? I guess this article got it backwards eh? Here are the facts:

    * Gase is failing as an OC and as a HC, teams are not ready to play. Fins easily 0-3 team if not for luck.
    * Jay Cutler is not the problem, the entire offense is the problem. No identity, no scheme, no purpose, just some plays.
    * Power running out of shotgun zone option is …. not really a power run. Fins need an I-formation.
    * Why did they pay K Stills? They don’t use him. 1 vertical attempt and that was predictably to Parker who is dbl covered.
    * Landry no longer scares anyone. I mean how afraid can anyone be of short to mid square ins and hooks? Just tackle him.
    * Do the Fins have any TE? Why did they sign Fasano? only to block?
    * Teams can stop Fins run AND dbl cover both WR’s – Fins don’t threated deep middle w TE’s.
    * The most bland defense I have ever seen –
    * When was the last time you saw a Fins CB in bump press coverage? Even when in man they’re off LOS.
    * Gase’s offense is not only bad, its boooooring.

    • Dunner

      Freak, for the very first time I must agree w all points mentioned except the defense. The defense has played well enough to be 3-0. Other than that, all points are valid.

      Hope for a turn around such as last year. If not, season could get away in a hurry.

      • phinfreak

        I still notice they can’t get off the field. Their 3rd down defense % sucks. Look at all the long drives and time of possession against them. Im not seeing a defense that can win games. I dont see it.

    • admin

      “Well now… where are all the geniuses now? I guess this article got it backwards eh? Here are the facts:

      * Gase is failing as an OC and as a HC, teams are not ready to play. Fins easily 0-3 team if not for luck.
      * Jay Cutler is not the problem, the entire offense is the problem. No identity, no scheme, no purpose, just some plays.
      * Power running out of shotgun zone option is …. not really a power run. Fins need an I-formation.
      * Why did they pay K Stills? They don’t use him. 1 vertical attempt and that was predictably to Parker who is dbl covered.
      * Landry no longer scares anyone. I mean how afraid can anyone be of short to mid square ins and hooks? Just tackle him.
      * Do the Fins have any TE? Why did they sign Fasano? only to block?
      * Teams can stop Fins run AND dbl cover both WR’s – Fins don’t threated deep middle w TE’s.
      * The most bland defense I have ever seen –
      * When was the last time you saw a Fins CB in bump press coverage? Even when in man they’re off LOS.
      * Gase’s offense is not only bad, its boooooring.”

      First off, again your tone is as a jerk and you enter into your usual of mix and match info. Also, you didn’t watch the game… so where are you basing your statements?

      The article says this, which you conveniently miss… as usual “Remember the formula for success is your team’s talent verse the talent of the team you’re playing… of course, then there are the ingredients of match ups and play calls to complete the flavor of the brew.”

      So given you said this “Gase’s offense is not only bad, its boooooring.” “The most bland defense I have ever seen” “Do the Fins have any TE? Why did they sign Fasano? only to block?
      * Teams can stop Fins run AND dbl cover both WR’s – Fins don’t threated deep middle w TE’s.” “Why did they pay K Stills? They don’t use him. 1 vertical attempt and that was predictably to Parker who is dbl covered.
      ” “Jay Cutler is not the problem, the entire offense is the problem. No identity, no scheme, no purpose, just some plays,” You support my point….ohh the point I made a few articles ago when you were talking about a lack of talent. But of course, this is now your revolutionary idea that you have pointed out from the beginning. Also, IF you watched the game, which you didn’t–did you Freak–then you would have seen that his article talks about the interior of the line and it was the TE and Tackles that failed. Again, this loss was based on your above statements, which I agree on. Also you said the Defense would get lit up, which they didn’t even with a rookie at CB. But of course, you pass that over as usual because your objective is very rarely about truth or discourse.
      Again, for you this about your ego… you are never intellectually honest. You use straw man’s arguments, remove facts to push your agenda and completely forget what you say when it doesn’t suit you. Your insecurity fuels everything you do. And if the Phins go on a tear you’ll crawl under a rock like last year and show up with your tail between your legs waiting to attack. EVERYONE who has read you over the year’s knows this is the truth about you and your character. BTW if this site over nothing for the great and wise Freak, then why read and why post? That in it self reveals a lot about what is under your hood.

      • Dunner

        Well said, true that!

        Just sick of a bland, bland offense/team. If we are going to lose, at least lets lose 35-30. Open things up, no no-huddle???? Throw the ball down field.

        Gase, everything is on you now. You are the OC, you are the HC. One or the other must be evaluated with a possible change. 7 straight punts vs the Jets, 6 straight punts vs the Saints. Something must change or go………….>>>>>>>

        Julius Thomas out maned by someone 7 inches shorter than he. Worst signing in a long time, even worse than Mario Williams. Must be the slowest TE in the league.

        Maybe we can’t win w Cutler????

      • phinfreak

        Uh, youre the one that doesnt read.

        I recorded then watched the game. Although I admit I did not watch any other games. Football is now on Saturdays.
        Its not just the “interior of the line” bro….the T ‘s suck too or did you not watch Turnsil ? dont call out one section.
        Im not blaming our TE’s , Im blaming the play calling that doesnt throw to them, especially deep middle.
        Uh…20 points to zero IS getting lit up mate? Just cause its not 30 pts doesnt mean you got lit. 20 point spread is same as a 40-20 score and that is lit up.

        Fins arent going on a tear sista. put down the koolaid. Fins suck but you wont hear or read that here, unless you read my posts.

        Fins have regressed ever week this year vs improved, as should be the case. Whats the excuse for that?

        • admin

          YOUR QUOTE from two articles ago:

          “I canceled my NFL Package, so I wont be watching the game until these snow flakes stand for our National Anthem.”

          • phinfreak

            Yes, the game was on regular TV channel. I recorded it. Then watched it.

            I canceled my NFL package. I didnt watch any other games.

            So whats your point?

      • Fritz

        Agreed wholeheartedly MJ. I’m up for lively debate but when all Freak does is bash the team, then any valid criticism from him gets lost.

  • Dunner

    Gase needs to look in the mirror. 6 points in 2 games, and that 6 points came on the last play of the Jets game????????
    To much talent on the offense side of the ball for this to happen, especially vs the Saints “D”.
    I thought Gase was the kind of coach that utilizes his teams strengths and weaknesses. Game plan around what you have, not what you want. HUGE disappointment!!!
    There can not be a flatter team in this league right now. As I watch some games yesterday, even the (so called) bad teams are playing with more enthusiasm. The only team I see look similar to the Dolphins was the Browns, true story.
    I understand it is not time to panic, such as last season. But, comon, this was (is) the easy part of our schedule, opponent wise,,, 1-2???? I know there have been some unforeseen circumstances to start the season, but to play such lifeless games consecutively, wow.
    If you want to cut someone Gase, why not start with J.Thomas, the worst signing in several years.
    Wish I had the answer, it starts with the offense, many other offensive coordinators have lost their job after 2 scoreless games, even this early in the season. Worst scoring team in football, many dead last offensive statistical categories for this offense. I’ve just about had enough of those WR screens, is that the only play on your call sheet-Gase??? Throw the ball down field!!!

    *Silver lining (if any):
    -The defense has played well enough to be 3-0, the Saints lowest offensive output this season.
    -Tankersley looked pretty darn good in his debut. He was going against one the better WRs (M.Thomas), and held his own, good tackler, and nice press coverage with a little attitude. Speaking of press coverage, where was that in the first 2 games? Nice to see with Howard and now Tankersley.
    -Timmons looked good and should (SHOULD) continue to improve.
    -Can this crap offense give this defense a breather one game? Again, defense not the issue here, not perfect but good enough to be 3-0.
    -Come home (Finally), a home game finally, take a deep breath and start all over.
    -May have caught a break with the Marriota injury for the Titans game (hamstring). Then again Marriota doesn’t play defense. Don’t score, don’t win.
    -I do know one thing for sure, YOU CAN NOT WIN A BALL GAME IF YOU DO NOT SCORE, PERIOD!!! That simple.

    **Baseball playoffs are here. Nobody protests in the dugouts, all stand and honor our flag. Maybe its time to focus on their post season.

    • admin

      I had a long reply Dunner, but my kids are driving me insane and instead of hitting post comment, I clicked out of the screen. I keep thinking of Sgt. Murtaugh from Lethal Weapon when I think about have 3 kids under six at 45… ” I’m told old for this $#@%.” They are the light of my life… nothing brighter in this world to me, but man they are tiring, and I feeling it. Anyway, the short of it is Tankersley is much better off CB and Burke likes off play with intuitive contact. Both of which he displayed. MAxwell on the other hand is best at roughing up a WR. Just don’t get why they can’t compensate with scheme adjustments on that… ohhh well. Oout this disaster and my apparent backfire of a prediction I’ll enjoying going over the film to confirm and disprove my thoughts. Lemmus that old koot is going to make me work… reminds me of one of my old coaches. Either way I’ll learn form this… but I do hope I stand corrected. I’d say we should win but Gase has become such a wildcard that I can’t make any linear projections. He is the foundation and he is bombing on all fronts. Thomas is a disaster. Total. The fact that Gase keeps trotting him out and asking him to do what he can’t and never has, it very troubling. As I was before the Steelers game last year, I am at a total loss. If Gase can just grow, then everything turns on a dime. If not, then it’s disaster and the future of this season and the regime is in peril.

  • Steve

    Hello Dolphins Fans

    We have played 3 games out of 17 games. The Dolphins I believed will figure this out?

    • admin

      STEVE-O!!! We missed you. Hope all is well. Glad you hear from you brother. I hope you are doing well. I am a bit concerned because Gase was the foundation I am building everything off of. Even an average gameplan and calls would have made Miami 2-1. Glad to hear from you, and again, I hope all is well.

      • Steve

        Admin

        All is well Brother busy working. I’ve not seen one game just some highlights and reading sports comments. The season is early. The Dolphins may have been in preseason these last games I don’t know?

        I wasn’t sold on Gase last season but my thoughts are he’s the Dolphins coach! Hey wI’ll figure this out? The season is early.

  • Samson

    Biggest factors to me were Gase and Cutler. With the way the pats look this could have been the year to go for the division. Possibly 2 worst defenses in football and we were lucky to score once in two games. Lots of weapons on an offense to be the worst in football… And that’s what we have right now.. Worst offense in all of football. Defense has been ok. Improved from last year at least. Should have saved ten million and used Moore. Would have more than 6 points in two games anyway. Last place. Pathetic

    • admin

      Going over the game now to see if what I saw is was what I saw… play calls, Thomas, and Tunsil. Are the primary factors at this point. James gets honorable mention. Tunsil is looking like crap, and Thomas needs to sit as he is personally responsible for half a dozen dead plays… maybe more. Cutler is not even on the list.

  • Lemmus

    “It might sound crazy to say after last week, but the Miami Dolphins will win this Sunday because their Offensive Line will win fairly handily against the Saints Defensive Line.”

    …would you like ketchup or mustard on those feet, mj …inquiring minds want to know, eh
    …got to say, when you call it wrong, you go all in …I’ll give you that 🙂

    …pretty nice day at Disney …some rain …but better than watching the NFL self destruct …not to mention the phins

    …our offense sucks maggot slurry and (DING DING DING) the problem is the interior line …we didn’t win because of them today, mj …we lost because of them …period …even Belicheat and Brady would look bad behind that line

    …kudos to the defense despite the score

    • admin

      Actually, if you saw the game the Ol was the least of the factors. They protected Cutler pretty well and were asked to run with 9 in the box—again. The Saints loaded the box and it took Gase till 3rd Qtr to throw longer than 20 yards. Also, the main failure of blocking was Thomas in blocking. Pretty much a repro of the Jets game. They lost alright, but the first drive was the only coherent drive of the game–until the last play. We used wild cat, 5 wides to lob to Thomas in the endzone, QB option, 2 WR screens to Landry, 4-5 draws and 4-5 inside skinny post / slants. Gase said he didn’t know if it was predictability… that and stupidity. Mostly Gase is feeding this with incompetent play calls. I’ll take it on the chin, but if you saw the game OL was the least of the factors.

      • phinfreak

        Im not sure you watched the Saints vs Fins in England there mate. Cutler got sacked, and pummeled. Ajayi had 46 yards or so. And “the OL was the least of the factors” ?!!!!??? Cutler had to scramble out of the pocket half a dozen times, those werent rollouts bra.

        Im sure hes having flashbacks to when he was in Chicago. Saints out coached Gase and his crew. Loaded the box, stunted, blitzed and played bump-man coverage. Skunked Gase and his vaunted offensive genius mind.

        Pure crap is what you’re seeing and noone wants to call it that.

        • admin

          Freak I thought you didn’t watch the game due to your moral stance? And yes I did and when I put out the film I will support all I said, because I did watch the game… a couple of times now. Also, when I did an article on contact at the bottom of the route and more physical play, I believe you scoffed. I’ll check.

      • Lemmus

        “the Ol was the least of the factors” mj

        …just flat wrong mj …dead wrong …the interior line was/is THE problem …bad as the game plan, the calls, the choices were, we have the offensive talent at every scoring position except TE to score on any team …most certainly the jets and the saints …and yet we didn’t …six garbage points total …12 points in 3 games mj …Ajayi effectively blanked …Stills/Landry/Parker castrated …Cutler sacked 4x Sunday and so often hurried even the 2 sec dink n’ dunk didn’t work

        …this is deja vu a la ’16

        …except this year Gase has nothing at OL backup to replace the new turnstile trio with …and that is on him and T-bum …period …no excuses, nada, zero, IRMA my ass …and no rabbit left for Gase to pull out of his bag of tricks …because nothing will stop the next 13 teams we face from doing exactly what the last 2 did …stack the box, deny Ajayi any running room AND Cutler any time to find a receiver

        …and its all because they can …our interior line is a sieve and every DC now knows it …and its going to get worse, not better because it will wear our defense down eventually …right now we are statistically the worst offence in the NFL but still a top 10 defense …that can’t last

        …not a damn thing Gase can do to fix Bushrod right now except drop a WR and start Fasano …Thomas has been a disaster at TE, just look at his stats …bench him or cut him …and use Fasano to help close the sieve in the interior line …and for god’s sake stop playing footsie with the LG stutter …neither Steen nor Davis has been effective and they’re killing Pouncy and Tunsil …bench them both and start Asiata who flat out could not be any worse …and go find another guard, screw the cost …unless you intend to tank the season …because I believe that is now the choice

        …whatever Gase’s other faults may prove to be, he has a glaring blind spot at OL …so does T-bum …and its killing this team …imnsho

        • admin

          I respect you Lemmus and take what you say. But I’ll do an article on the game and have loads of film and do an entire 1st half of every play. I’ll let it speak for itself. It will uphold my statements, denounce them, or give it a 50 / 50. i’m fine however, I don’t have a dog in the fight as the truth is the truth and I don’t always have it. But again, as I have always said, said don’t lie… although it fibs every now and then.

        • admin

          Hey saw this and thought of you:

          Current @PFF ranks for Miami Dolphins OL:
          Tunsil (53 of 71)
          Steen (30 of 73)
          Pouncey (24 of 34)
          Bushrod (72 of 73)
          James (6 of 71)

          • Dunner

            Bushrod, 72 of 73 guards, sounds like last year, but Gased insisted his tape didn’t lie. Someone’s does???

          • admin

            Tunsil is the biggest dissapointment. Bushrod may just suck or be okay and be put in bad position. Hard to really evaluate that. Either way, he is being exposed. But the reality is, even if he was above avg. with your LT playing like this , it’s trouble. But to lean on Lemmus’ point it would be better to have a talent there than not. Steen was a surprise, though.

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