Why Ajayi is just as good as Gurley

The Dolphins were extremely interested in selecting Todd Gurley with the number 14th overall selection. There were even rumors that if both Gurley and Parker were available then the Dolphins brass actually favored selecting Gurley. However, the Saint Louis Rams helped make the decision easier for the phins, because they selected him with the 10th overall pick. It will be interesting to see which player ends up having a better NFL career. Fortunately for the Dolphins, they were able to draft a running back all the way in the fifth round that is a close second in terms of talent and ability in Jay Ajayi.

Ajayi was predicted by many of the pay per head reviews to be selected no later than the second round, however, his physical had shown that his knee was bone on bone, which scared a lot of NFL teams in regards to the longevity of his NFL career. He was healthy in his last two seasons at Boise State, but more teams were viewing his bone on the bone knee as something that would have an extremely low chance of holding up in the NFL. It is extremely interesting that teams where in love with Gurley who was coming off a very recent ACL injury, whereas teams were more afraid of Ajayi who has been healthy and playing dominant football for the last two seasons. On a purely statistical level, Ajayi outperformed Gurley in most categories.

In 2014

Gurley 6 games, 123 Atts, 989 Yds, 7.4 Avg, 9 TD, 12 Rec, 57 Yds, 0 TD

Ajayi 14 games, 347 Atts, 1,823 Yds, 5.3 Avg, 28 TD, 50 Rec, 535 Yds, 4 TD

In 2013

Gurley 10 games, 165 Atts, 989 Yds, 6.0 Avg, 10 TD, 37 Rec, 441 Yds, 6 TD

Ajayi 13 games, 249 Atts, 1,425 Yds, 5.7 Avg, 18 TD, 22 Rec, 222Yds, 1 TD

Besides Ajayi running for more yards and scoring more Touchdowns than Gurley the most interesting statistic is the number of games played for each player. Ajayi was able to stay healthy and play in 27 games in his last 2 seasons, whereas Gurley was only able to stay healthy for 16 games (Gurley was suspended for a couple of games as well) in his last 2 seasons. On a health basis based on the numbers Ajayi clearly looks like the less of the health risk of the 2 players. Sure Ajayi has taken a much bigger pounding on his body since he has carried the ball 596 times in the last 2 years compared to Gurley’s 288 attempts in the same time frame. (More than double the carries and pounding.) However, we can play devil’s advocate, and say that even though Ajayi has more miles on his body, those miles have not affected his health in regards to missing playing time, which proves he can healthily take a pounding. Anything will happen, so only time will tell which of these two players can stay healthy and productive the most in the NFL.

So for the Dolphins to get a player that is comparable to Gurley in both running and catching ability, in the 5th round is a tremendous value. Another way to look at it is that Miami was able to select the receiver they wanted in Parker and was able to get a running back in the 5th round that has a very similar playing style to Gurley, a player who they were extremely interested in drafting in the first round. This also demonstrates what a great job both Tannenbaum and Hickey were able to do with the draft board.

As long as Ajayi stays healthy then he will get significant playing time because he is a perfect compliment to Lamar Miller. Ajayi is a perfect third-down back, he can get that tough yard, or he can catch a pass out of the backfield and turn it into a big play. In addition, Ajayi is going to see a lot of opportunities at the goal line and inside the red-zone due to his unique ability to grind out tough yards and excellent receiving skills. I think a reasonable assumption is that he can easily give us 5 to 7 touchdowns worth of production this upcoming season. What does the rest of the Miami Dolphins News fans think about the selection of Ajayi?

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26 comments

  • Dunner

    My only concern with Ajayi is him wearing down late in the season, not his knee. His knee is what it is. There were several medical staffs that passed his physical exam. However; all it took was for one medical staff to mention bone on bone and automatically red flags appear on all teams reports, thus causing his draft day plunge. Who is to say Miami’s staff did not mention the issue, hoping for that plunge? That is how it works in the NFL at that time of the year.
    This staff needs to keep Ajayi fresh for the end of the season, we are going to need him in December and January, that’s right January. Ajayi is going to light it up outside of the division. I like Miller, however; he is no Ajayi, Ajayi can do it all on any and all downs distances. I say outside of the division because the AFC East could have 3 of the top 7/8 run defenses in the league, excluding the Pats, yes the Pats.

    • Jimmy Bourbon

      In the beginning of the season they should focus on using Ajayi on third and shorts and in the redzone. If he is playing out of his mind, than gradually reward him with more carries per game. He was one of my favorite picks and I see him immediately adding 5 to 7 touchdowns next season

  • FlFred

    You choice of music for the film clips sucks! Having said that, I am hopeful that Ajayi holds-up
    for a few years and performs as expected. I wish him nothing but good health and prosperity.
    Go Dolphins !!

  • We’ll see!!! Point is our offensive line sucks. And our linebackers need help!! Ajayi was a steel, but we had know choice by the 5th round to take him… Our draft pic’s were all over the board. We should have picked better. Luck has much to do with winning, but our schedule dictates a competitive conference and the league that we play against. 2015 does not sound promising, I am patient and have know choice but to wait for the 2016 season. We are just not as good as the top team’s in the NFL. I will remain a loyal Dolphin Fan, but I will always be vocal in regards to the players we pick up. I can only hope for us to reach the play-offs this year. Go Phins!!!!

    • Jimmy Bourbon

      Well we couldn’t fix everything in one off-season, but yes the biggest questions are Guard and Linebacker. We have improved in other areas so I believe overall we have a better team than last season.

      • phinfreak

        “…couldnt fix everything in one season…” I’ve been hearing that for 10 years now.

        • Dunner

          Miami came as close to fixing their problems in one year as you can get. Their LBers were average at best prior to the Suh signing. Now with Suh on board Miami’s average LBers automatically are bumped up to above average/good and with an infusion of McCain can possibly reach the top 10 status. Again, Suh is that kind of player.

      • Fredrick Unverzagt

        Of course the team is better. By far. Leaving aside Suh for a minute, the wide receiver additions will help tremendously. To a man, they all are known to fight for the ball, high pointing it, etc. They all have great hands. That is a fact. Also, the team is signing players and drafting with “love of the game” being a huge factor in their decision making process. I can’t stand people who perpetually negative. It’s okay to have hope. The front office is upgrades are just as significant as the player additions, IMHO. They evaluate talent better and until THEY BEEN PROVEN WRONG ( it takes 2-3 years or more to really evaluate draft picks and FA signings properly, and everyone should know that if they truly are informed NFL fans. Being negative just to be negative is trolling behavior. Omar Kelly and Miko Grimes are 2 of the worst offenders. Quite frankly, it amazes me that some of the coaches and players even talk to Omar, and I’m curious what Brent’s teammates think of Miko’s mouth. Especially Tannehil.

        • Jimmy Bourbon

          Not only are they all better receivers, but they all are good locker room type guys. I agree Fre3drick, lots of improvements and we have guys on the team that love football and feisty competitors, the whole personality of this team is changing for the better. I personally love the direction this team is going, and each draft and off-season we are getting better talent and better individuals into the organization

  • phinfreak

    I think this team has had plenty of experience with RB’s that have bad knees.

    To suggest Ajayi is anything remotely compararble to Gurley, who flourished in the SEC, by use of statistics, which are meaningless, is pure homerism.

    32 teams passed on Ajayi up till the 5th round. Nuff said.

    • Jimmy Bourbon

      Once again I do not understand why you bother even coming on this blog, to just but negative stuff all the time.

      • phinfreak

        Im here to offer balance and realistic perspective to all those intoxicated with irrational exhuberance.

        Just what has there been to cheer about over the last decade?

        Youre welcome.

        • Dunner

          Freak, You do not know what insightful balance means. Negative Ned should be your handle. Don’t jump on the wagon when they are winning and pretend that you knew it all along! Are you sure you are not Ireland in disguise…. You probably supported all his moves at the time.

          • phinfreak

            Girlfriend, What bandwagon?

            There has been no bandwagon to jump on over the last 10 years.

      • Fredrick Unverzagt

        Totally agree. I usually avoid forums because of this. It’s just being a troll, period. “Balance”? “Realistic perspective”? Please. You’re either a Pats fan( most likely), or, even worse, an Omar Kelly/ Miko Grimes disciple. If you really want to “help” us, kick rocks. Jimmy, can’t you just toss this dude out. That’s what I do in my Facebook, Miami Dolphins group(one of the oldest & deepest Fins groups on Facebook at 1700 plus peeps). It gets tired listening to this crap. No REAL fans of the team would post this negative crap. We’re ALL tired of being disappointed by the team. The past is the past, however, and for the 1st time in years, I’m NOT nervous about the roster and whose building it. The guard, linebacker & CB stuff will be worked out in camp. Also, the addition of Suh will make the entire defense better. Kind of like how a great QB makes the players around him on offense better and can take over games by himself. JJ Watt is the same kind of player. Revis as well. Seattle is loaded on defense as they have several players that can take over games. Anyhow, Jimmy, if you can, kick this dude to the curb. Simple as that.

        • Jimmy Bourbon

          I truly wanted to kick him out, but I was out voted, because we want to let every one speak their minds. Even though I agree there is no point to have this negativity on the blog, especially considering that our team is actually improving.

  • massdolphan

    Ajayi was a total steal in the 5th rd, even if his career ends up being cut short due to the knee issue. Not only is he the power runner we need to compliment Miller, he is an excellent pass receiver.

  • Diego

    I read some writer suggesting a possible trade between Miami and Dallas, where we give up Rishard Matthews and a 4th and a 6th for Ronald Leary, the G that La’el Collins should unseat come the season. I don’t know about two picks, but I am all for it. They are thin at wide receiver and we are at guard. It’s probably one of those trades that make too much sense for it to happen. He does have some knee concerns that come along similar to Ajayi, projecting as a round 2-3 guy who went undrafted because the medical report on his left knee was that he had a degenerative knee condition that could shorten his career. Well last year he was part of the best line in football, so I say let’s do it. Anyone in the NFL can have there career shortened or even ended every time they step on the field. We can get him on the cheap for a year as he earns even less than Matthews and get our doctors to look at him and assess his value moving forward after this season. My concern is I don’t know if Matthews has done enough playing on the field, but may just be doing too much talking off the field to warrant trade consideration from anyone.

    • Jimmy Bourbon

      I agree Diego that would be a solid trade, to get a former starting guard, especially from a team that had one of the best offensive lines in the league.

    • Dolfan72

      Rishard Matthews is worth zero in trade value maybe a 6th or 7th some team will be willing to part with for him.

      • Jimmy Bourbon

        He may be worth a player for player trade. Like a team like Dallas who is stacked in the offensive line, but could use another wide receiver

  • Ralph

    5 to 7 — heck he could get 12 to 15 if we had a good healthy front line
    It is up to the guards to pull and open holes
    I just pray that our 2 guards pan out and don’ t become our Achilles heel
    I also still hold hope there is an experienced guard, that gets cut by another team because they are trying to save money, or get younger, that we can sign and he can immediately upgrade that position for us.
    We are really going in with unknown quality at that crucial spot for our offense
    Hope it works out

    • Jimmy Bourbon

      I am afraid about the guards, but I think the even bigger key to the puzzle is if Albert can be and stay healthy. If he can stay healthy that will mean, James and Pouncey will be playing at their natural positions so I believe if we have those three top tier guys than they can make up for some of the weaknesses at the two guard positions

    • True ….m so very tired O Oline bein our Achilles……