Leverage Will Be Lost In Landry Negotiations After Week 1
Landry’s negotiations have windows of opportunity on both sides
This article isn’t to say what will or will not happen with the future of Jarvis Landry and the Miami Dolphins–it’s all conjecture at this point.
It’s also not to say if he should or should’t be signed–we have not clue what the asking price is.
But, there is a matter being overlooked: the Miami Dolphins brass will miss a window of opportunity if they don’t extend Jarvis Landry‘s contract before Week 1.
Yes, Miami can put the Franchise Tag on Landry in 2018 for a value of roughly 15 million. This would theoretically give him a salary of about 8 million a season over 2017-2018.
That’s a bargain for Miami and a nice amount of cash for Landry… right?
Yes and no on Landry’s end.
I’d take a hundred K a year over the next two years and go laughing to the bank… perspective and context are keys to deciding if the price is right.
Landry future beyond 2018 gets dicey if he’s not signed before Week 1
But the reality is, a very valuable bargaining chip worth millions of dollars would be lost from the Dolphins side of the bargaining table if a deal isn’t done before Week 1.
First, by Miami missing this window of opportunity, they will find themselves on equal financial footing with every other team seeking Landry’s talents for 2019 and beyond.
Yes, Landry will be a Dolphins for the next two years. But when negotiations start in two years, what dollar advantage will Miami have over other teams at that point?
Yes, Florida has zero % tax rate–and that’s a nice edge.
But a team wanting his services could outbid Miami even with the tax advantage. Teams love to spend, and Miami will be forced to chase the highest bidder. See Olivier Vernon as a prime example.
So what’s this financial advantage being lost you might ask? The answer is 2017 and 2018’s salary.
Landry is making under a million dollars this season. Bottom line, a fair value for him would be at least 12 million. So, if you take into account, as said previously, his Tag in 2018, which equals out to 8 million for the next two seasons. That would be 16 million with the tag verse 24 million with an extension–roughly 8 tmillion less that could be in his pocket, if Miami were to do a new deal before the start of this season.
A pay increase this season could be a bargaining chip with Landry
So, let’s say you want to bid high at 15 million per season in 2019, a contract at that rate would be 75 million over 5 years.
Simply by letting Landry understand that he could have 8 million more in his pocket if he signs now, and then would also be ready for another huge contract two year sooner, they could offer 67 million over the next 5 years (13.3 million a season) and he would be ahead of the game verse if he waited two more seasons for a new long-term contract. Add in the zero tax rate, his love of the team, and maybe you could chop it down a little more… and Landry would still be ahead of the game compared to waiting till 2019.
Now, that would be a win-win on both sides.
But, if things go beyond Week 1, at the very least they lose the ability to bargain down his contract with a pay increase this season, even if they forgo the Tag and extend him in 2018. This doesn’t take into account the problem of what if he goes off and has his best season and raises the price tag with his play?
I guess it could go the other way to… but that’s high stakes gambling that even a pay per head sportsbook might shy away from.
Only time with tell if Miami makes the right decision or not. But the reality is, the Dolphins influence over Landry’s decision to stay or go is slipping from their grasp. Crossing the line into Week 1 will be a window of opportunity lost… and might end up costing the Dolphins a lot more in the long run. Go Fins!!!